301
FXUS62 KKEY 091503
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1103 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, SUPPORTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-108 DEGREES DAILY WITH
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE
SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
IT HAS BEEN QUITE ACTIVE THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAKING THEIR WAY FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED OFFSHORE, BUT WHAT
PRECIPITATION HAS MANAGED TO FIND LAND, HAS BEEN MOSTLY UP IN THE
UPPER KEYS. THIS HOUR THE STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD
MOTION AND STAY JUST NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH
MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AXIS OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HEIGHTENED
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE STRONGER OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS, BLINDING DOWNPOURS, AND BOUTS OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, EXPECT GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
EASTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG
WITH GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES. ANY PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL POSE A RISK FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR
ADJUSTMENTS THAT MAY BE NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
AFTER MANY DAYS WITHOUT MUCH OF A PREVAILING WIND, A LIGHT EAST
EASTERLY BREEZE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
A RESULT OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES,
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE SEASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES BROADLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. EARLIER NEARBY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRECLUDED AN EVENING SOUNDING IN KEY WEST.
HOWEVER, THE SOUNDING OUT OF MIAMI INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
WAS VERY HIGH AT 2.35 INCHES. AMPLE CAPE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION WAS PRESENT AND NOT FAR OFF THE USUAL. SYNOPTICALLY,
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IS STACKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES, WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY SPINNING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, BREEZES SHOULD FIRM UP OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST, BECOMING GENTLE TONIGHT. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN HIGH, ALONG WITH CAPE REMAINING HIGH WITH
LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. NO TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN PUSHING WELL
INTO THE UPPER 70S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE AXIS SETTLES SOUTHWARDS INTO FLORIDA.
OVERALL, BREEZES WILL REMAIN GENTLE, WITH PEAKS IN THE EVENING AND
LULLS DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATES AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SWATHES OF ENHANCED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING WESTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA AND HELP TO NUDGE POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 82 / 50 40 60 30
MARATHON 90 83 90 82 / 40 50 40 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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