766
FXUS62 KKEY 091907
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
307 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, SUPPORTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-108 DEGREES DAILY WITH
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE
SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
FROM SYNOPSIS: RIDGING HAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA RESULTING IN GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. EXPECT
BREEZES TO PEAK IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE LULLING DURING
THE DAY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SWATHES WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY PASSING CONVECTION.
THAT BEING SAID, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT, MOST LIKELY AFTER 05Z/10TH. STORMS WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
AFTER MANY DAYS WITHOUT MUCH OF A PREVAILING WIND, A LIGHT EAST
EASTERLY BREEZE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
A RESULT OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES,
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE SEASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES BROADLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. EARLIER NEARBY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRECLUDED AN EVENING SOUNDING IN KEY WEST.
HOWEVER, THE SOUNDING OUT OF MIAMI INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
WAS VERY HIGH AT 2.35 INCHES. AMPLE CAPE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION WAS PRESENT AND NOT FAR OFF THE USUAL. SYNOPTICALLY,
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IS STACKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES, WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY SPINNING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, BREEZES SHOULD FIRM UP OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST, BECOMING GENTLE TONIGHT. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN HIGH, ALONG WITH CAPE REMAINING HIGH WITH
LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. NO TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN PUSHING WELL
INTO THE UPPER 70S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE AXIS SETTLES SOUTHWARDS INTO FLORIDA.
OVERALL, BREEZES WILL REMAIN GENTLE, WITH PEAKS IN THE EVENING AND
LULLS DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATES AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SWATHES OF ENHANCED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING WESTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA AND HELP TO NUDGE POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 82 92 / 40 60 30 40
MARATHON 83 90 82 90 / 50 40 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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