999
FXUS62 KKEY 250922
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
522 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- KING TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF
LOW ELEVATION STREETS AND LOTS. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD
ROADWAYS!
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES MAY OCCUR IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE GULF UNTIL
WINDS DECREASE.
- INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERNMOST STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEPENING TROUGH
AXIS SITUATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENT, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
ANDROS ISLAND AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, HELPS TO ROUGHLY
DELINEATE WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED.
MEANWHILE, BROAD RIDGING TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE 00Z KKEY RAOB SAMPLED THE EARLY
PROLIFERATION OF DRY AIR, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500MB, BUT SOME DRYING IS
NOTED BELOW 500MB AS WELL. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEING INITIATED BY A WIND SURGE AND
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE WATERS WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE KEYS. THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO
GROW VERTICALLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT, AND ONLY A HANDFUL OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS CUBA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
STRAITS. EXPECT FRESHENING BREEZES TO GENTLE TO MODERATE TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF FOR A SHORT PERIOD
THIS MORNING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE GULF UNTIL WINDS
DECREASE. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE EASTERNMOST
STRAITS OF FLORIDA OFF THE UPPER KEYS. TO ROUND THINGS OFF, AS WE
APPROACH A PEAK IN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, MINOR SALTWATER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE KEYS.
THIS MAY BE COMPOUNDED BY A BACKUP OF THE GULF STREAM DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM PARKED OFF THE EAST COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS, AND EXTENSIONS INTO THE COMING DAYS MAY BE NECESSARY.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE EARLY SEASON NOR'EASTER WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND LOITER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING SOUTH THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGHING WILL
PROVIDE REINFORCING SURGES OF DRY AIR INTO FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
KEYS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME
MEASURE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERTICAL GROWTH BY
THE PRECEDING DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST GENERALLY
CALLS FOR BELOW-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SLIGHT
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT, OR IN THE FLORIDA BAY AND UPPER KEYS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SOUTHWARD MOVING ACTIVITY FROM THE FLORIDA MAINLAND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN USUAL.
NOT A WILD TEMPERATURE SWING, BUT CERTAINLY NOTICEABLE FROM A LOWER
HUMIDITY PERSPECTIVE.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO
MORE OF A WET PATTERN AS LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO SWING BACK TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL HELP TO FORCE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE KEYS AS THE REMNANT FRONT COMPLETELY WASHES OUT. HOWEVER,
IN THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST COAST
LOW WILL BEGIN TO ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO
THE GULF, PLACING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS BACK INTO
A FAVORED ZONE FOR LIFT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BECOME MAXIMIZED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN WHICH ABOVE-NORMAL POPS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FROM SYNOPSIS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL
TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRESHENING NORTHERLY
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THIS MORNING BEFORE
DECREASING BY MIDDAY, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN
THE GULF WATERS UNTIL WINDS DECREASE. IN ADDITION, SEAS ACROSS THE
EASTERNMOST FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BUILD TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DUE TO AN INCOMING 4 TO 5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVER THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING SOUTH THROUGH THE KEYS
WITH DRY AIR ALSO EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED WIND
SURGE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS HELPING TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHRA NEAR THE TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. FOR NOW,
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 12Z. ALTHOUGH THERE'S A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER AT A TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE DRY AIR ALOFT. SFC
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NORTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH VFR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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