655
FXUS62 KKEY 251516
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1116 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS AND LOTS IS LIKELY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENT KING TIDE. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED
BRIDGES.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE KEYS BY
MONDAY NIGHT.
- INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM A NOR'EASTER OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA OFF THE UPPER KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SURFACE AND RADAR ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS AN EARLY-SEASON COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLIER TODAY NOW SLOWLY
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CONVECTION
CONTINUES IN THE BEST ZONE OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE, MAINLY IN THE
WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. GOES-19
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN DECK OF LOW STRATUS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SLOWLY BREAKING UP, YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LAGGING BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT NOT FAR AWAY. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION
FROM NAPLES, FL SAMPLED A 70F DEW POINT.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY, BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. MOST
ISLAND COMMUNITIES WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE IN A ZONE OF MODEST CONFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND. ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED TIDES. A STRENGTHENING
EARLY-SEASON NOR'EASTER OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT A BACK UP OF OUR GULF STREAM. COMBINED WITH PEAKING KING
TIDES, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED, POSSIBLY
PEAKING NEAR MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH NO CHANGES PROPOSED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ANY REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
WANE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND, PEAKING SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED
BRIDGES, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
FROM SYNOPSIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE OVER THE WEEKEND. A
NOR'EASTER OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SUPPORT A NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH BACK NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES.
WINDS WILL THEN CLOCK BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
BOUTS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS,
WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY 18Z.
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WANE,
WITH GUSTS BECOMING MUCH LESS FREQUENT ALSO AFTER 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 77 87 77 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 86 77 86 77 / 10 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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