782
FXUS62 KKEY 251742
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
142 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS AND LOTS IS LIKELY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENT KING TIDE. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED
BRIDGES.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE KEYS BY
MONDAY NIGHT.
- INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM A NOR'EASTER OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA OFF THE UPPER KEYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY CONCERN. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND
DIRECTION, GIVEN THE RUNWAY ORIENTATIONS AT EYW AND MTH. WINDS MAY
WAFFLE BETWEEN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST, MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE WENT WITH A PREVAILING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY,
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEPENING TROUGH
AXIS SITUATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENT, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
ANDROS ISLAND AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, HELPS TO ROUGHLY
DELINEATE WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED.
MEANWHILE, BROAD RIDGING TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE 00Z KKEY RAOB SAMPLED THE EARLY
PROLIFERATION OF DRY AIR, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500MB, BUT SOME DRYING IS
NOTED BELOW 500MB AS WELL. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEING INITIATED BY A WIND SURGE AND
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE WATERS WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE KEYS. THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO
GROW VERTICALLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT, AND ONLY A HANDFUL OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS CUBA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
STRAITS. EXPECT FRESHENING BREEZES TO GENTLE TO MODERATE TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF FOR A SHORT PERIOD
THIS MORNING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE GULF UNTIL WINDS
DECREASE. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE EASTERNMOST
STRAITS OF FLORIDA OFF THE UPPER KEYS. TO ROUND THINGS OFF, AS WE
APPROACH A PEAK IN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, MINOR SALTWATER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE KEYS.
THIS MAY BE COMPOUNDED BY A BACKUP OF THE GULF STREAM DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM PARKED OFF THE EAST COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS, AND EXTENSIONS INTO THE COMING DAYS MAY BE NECESSARY.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE EARLY SEASON NOR'EASTER WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND LOITER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING SOUTH THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGHING WILL
PROVIDE REINFORCING SURGES OF DRY AIR INTO FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
KEYS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME
MEASURE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERTICAL GROWTH BY
THE PRECEDING DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST GENERALLY
CALLS FOR BELOW-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SLIGHT
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT, OR IN THE FLORIDA BAY AND UPPER KEYS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SOUTHWARD MOVING ACTIVITY FROM THE FLORIDA MAINLAND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN USUAL.
NOT A WILD TEMPERATURE SWING, BUT CERTAINLY NOTICEABLE FROM A LOWER
HUMIDITY PERSPECTIVE.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO
MORE OF A WET PATTERN AS LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO SWING BACK TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL HELP TO FORCE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE KEYS AS THE REMNANT FRONT COMPLETELY WASHES OUT. HOWEVER,
IN THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST COAST
LOW WILL BEGIN TO ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO
THE GULF, PLACING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS BACK INTO
A FAVORED ZONE FOR LIFT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BECOME MAXIMIZED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN WHICH ABOVE-NORMAL POPS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ANY REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
WANE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND, PEAKING SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED
BRIDGES, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
FROM SYNOPSIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE OVER THE WEEKEND. A
NOR'EASTER OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SUPPORT A NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH BACK NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES.
WINDS WILL THEN CLOCK BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 77 87 77 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 86 77 86 77 / 10 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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