062
FXUS62 KKEY 270255
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1055 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS AND LOTS IS LIKELY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENT KING TIDE. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED
BRIDGES.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
KEYS, AND A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER
KEYS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL
OF THE KEYS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
- NORTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM A NOR'EASTER OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IN THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA OFF THE UPPER
KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 AND THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ONE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA
WHEREAS A SECOND RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
MEXICO. INTERESTINGLY, ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD TOWARDS
CANADA WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY
IN CANADA. IN BETWEEN THE RIDGES IS THE NOR'EASTER WHICH HAS BEEN
WREAKING HAVOC ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE, ESPECIALLY THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AREA TO LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THE REASON
THIS LOW IS STILL REMAINING IN PLACE IS THAT IT IS LOCKED IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES LEAVING IT WITH NO WHERE TO GO
BUT TO SIT AND MEANDER. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO PERHAPS JUST
OUTSIDE THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT
IN BEHIND THE HIGH WITH MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND
CHAIN RECORDING NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES NEAR 10 KNOTS. KBYX
RADAR HAS REMAINED QUITE ACTIVE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
ORIGINALLY JUST WEST OF KEY WEST WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE UPPER KEYS AND THE EASTERN DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
ACCORDING TO MRMS, RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE RANGED FROM A TRACE TO
AS MUCH AS THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AND MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
TAVERNIER. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER
80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE PROFILE
AGAIN WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED CAME IN AT 1.52 INCHES
WHICH IS AT THE PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS A
BACKING PROFILE WHICH GENERALLY ISN'T THAT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, THE WATERS AROUND THE KEYS ARE STILL QUITE WARM
AND ANY CONVERGENCE OR COLLISION OF BOUNDARIES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES REMAINING FOR THE UPPER KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE DISTANT STRAITS OF
FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHERLIES. A NOR'EASTER REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH LARGE
PERIODS IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL THEN CLOCK BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE
AROUND THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE
FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES, POTENTIALLY BECOME MODERATE
TO FRESH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS KEEPING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS, VCSH WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 87 78 87 78 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 86 77 85 78 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLIES.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....PV/DR
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