219
FXUS62 KKEY 290237
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO MAJOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS
AND LOTS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY OR SO DUE
TO KING TIDE. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. BOATERS CAN
EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGES.
- A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUNDS, BAY SIDE OF KEY LARGO. A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS.
- A WET PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS PUMPED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES, LINGERING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
AN OLD LOWER LEVEL FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD INTO THE KEYS THIS
EVENING. WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS RATHER WEAK, A LOWER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS ALIGNED ACROSS CUBA. THIS HAS SET UP A BROAD CONFLUENCE
ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA, BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN ADDITION, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA.
ALTOGETHER, THESE FACTORS HAS SETUP A WET PATTERN ACROSS THE
KEYS. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
JUMPED CONSIDERABLY TO 2.5 INCHES. ALSO, AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, EMANATING FROM ACTIVITY NEAR CUBA, SWEPT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE KEYS AND BUMPED SURFACE DEW POINTS UP 5 DEGREES INTO
THE MID 70S. DESPITE THE DEW POINT RISE, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LIKELY HELD BACK CONVECTIVE PROLIFERATION NEARER THE ISLAND CHAIN
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS ABLE TO SLIP NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE ARCHIPELAGO.
WHATEVER WAS LEFT OF THE OLD FRONT HAS LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE THIS
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED WITH
A BROAD CONFLUENCE ZONE REMAINING ACROSS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION,
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALIGNED THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA. AS A RESULT, THE WETTER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN AND AROUND THE KEYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
AND LIKELY FOR A FEW DAYS LONGER. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND BROADLY
SOUTHWESTERLY, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP SURFACE DEW
POINTS UP IN THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, BUT SHOULD AVERAGE OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING TIDAL AMPLITUDE AND THE
EFFECTS OF AN EARLY SEASON KING TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SOUNDS, BAY SIDE OF KEY LARGO. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
A MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS KEYS WATERS,
LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS RESULT, PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY, LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS, AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST,
BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE WESTERN FLANK OF
A SLOPPY PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS. AS A
RESULT, PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE THAT THESE PERIODS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES,
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST,
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ076.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ077-078.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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