462
FXUS62 KKEY 301753
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
153 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS.
- MINOR TO MODERATE SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS
AND LOTS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY OR SO DUE
TO KING TIDE. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. BOATERS CAN
EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGES.
- A WET PATTERN AND THUNDERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCASIONALLY APPROACH THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN TERMS OF TIMING AND COULD
REALLY OCCUR AT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS CROSSWIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER STORM. HAVE INCLUDED A GENERAL MENTION OF VCSH AT
EYW AND A PREVAILING PERIOD OF SHRA FOR NOW AT MTH, ALONG WITH A
PROB30 GROUP FOR WHEN THE FOCUSES OF CONVECTION COULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME. SQUALLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD PASSED THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS COAST
WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING, LEAVING WINDS TEMPORARILY LIGHT AND
CONFUSED. SEAS MEASURED AT SATAN SHOAL WERE RUNNING 3 FEET WITH A
4 SECOND PERIOD. FROM SYNOPSIS: A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MERGE WITH AN
EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FRESHENING BREEZES WITH AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT MARINE CAUTIONS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS AT THAT TIME, AND ADVISORIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION, A VERY WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE KEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE IN A MOMENTARY LULL WITH THE KBYX RADAR
SURPRISINGLY QUIET ALL ACROSS OUR CWA. NEAREST AREA OF CONVECTION
IS MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND BEGINNING TO ENTER OPEN
WATERS. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO OUR WATERS.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE IN THE THICK OF IT SO TO SPEAK. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIES TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BASIN, EXTENDING
WELL INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED THE KEYS UNDER A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN FACT, WE'RE MONITORING THE NEARLY
WEST TO EAST LINE OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING
NORTH AND IS CURRENTLY REACHING CUBA. THIS LINE IS ON PACE TO
REACH THE KEYS BETWEEN 0900-1200 TODAY. GIVEN THIS TRAJECTORY PLUS
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX AND THE PRESENCE OF THE NEARBY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY POPS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. IN
ADDITION, WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF KING TIDES,
THEREFORE, SHOULD HEAVY RAIN COINCIDE WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, WE
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF ENHANCED FLOODING.
MEANWHILE, TO OUR NORTH, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFFSHORE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MERGE WITH AN EXISTING ATLANTIC RIDGE AND
SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD. THIS WILL LEAD TO FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MARINE CAUTION
HEADLINES LIKELY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GIVEN THE EARLY NATURE OF THIS BUILDING HIGH THAT
MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERPLAYING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.
NONETHELESS, WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EASE
AND ALLOW FOR BREEZES TO SLOWLY SLACKEN BACK TO GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH EASES, WE
SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WHAT WILL BE
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 78 89 79 / 70 80 80 60
MARATHON 87 79 88 80 / 70 80 70 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ076>078.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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