360
FXUS62 KKEY 010828
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
428 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS AND A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS. MINOR TO MODERATE SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION
STREETS. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. BOATERS CAN
EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGES.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN ALL
OTHER WATERS.
- A WET PATTERN AND THUNDERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
ANOTHER ACTIVE MORNING IS ONGOING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN PLENTIFUL, VERY FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED IN
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALONG THE REEF, MARINE LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS, THEREFORE
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE
BAY/GULF SIDE WATERS AS WELL AS THE HAWK CHANNEL. IN THE STRAITS,
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMED
OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERED FROM YESTERDAY'S SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN. AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EASTERLY, THE
NORTHERLY MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL
KEEP FLOWING INTO OUR AREA. ANOTHER HIGH RAIN CHANCE DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. WHILE A MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE DISTANT WATERS, MODELS SUGGEST THAT AROUND
SUNRISE THINGS WILL START TO RAMP UP OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ITSELF.
AFTER FRIDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO EASE OFF ALLOWING FOR
BREEZES TO SLACKEN AND RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. FROM SYNOPSIS,
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MERGE WITH AN
EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
WATERS BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION, A VERY WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER SUNRISE, ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN RESULTING IN THE
POSSIBILITIES OF TEMPOS INCLUDING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. DURING
CONVECTION WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ076.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ052>055-
072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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