868
FXUS62 KKEY 011500
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS AND A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS. MINOR TO MODERATE SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION
STREETS IS EXPECTED. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGES.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IN ALL OTHER WATERS.
- A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE RADAR HAS REMAINED QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 25 KNOTS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT WIND
PRODUCERS WITH SEVERAL 30-40 KNOT GUSTS MEASURED BY SURROUNDING
SURFACE AND MARINE OBSERVATION SITES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
INITIAL SURGE OF ACTIVITY HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD BEYOND OUR WATERS,
BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS
SEEMINGLY WILL BE THE THEME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS COMBINES WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUPPORT PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY, AND SEE NO NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES ACROSS OUR WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES, GENERALLY EXCLUDING
THE FLORIDA BAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER TIDAL CYCLE. ALTHOUGH TIDAL
ANOMALIES ARE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY DECREASE, PREDICTED PEAKS REMAIN
AT SIMILAR LEVELS TO THE PAST FEW HIGH TIDES, SO MINOR TO MODERATE
SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW-ELEVATION STREETS/LOTS ALONG THE KEYS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING HIGH TIDE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. IN THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES, SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL MERGE WITH AN EXISTING REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, A
VERY WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
TIMES OF VFR DUE TO LULLS IN THE ACTIVITY, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
PERIODS OF MVFR VIS AND, AT TIMES, CEILINGS. EXPECT BREEZY EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OF 18-20 KNOTS DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ076.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ033-034.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DM
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