796
FXUS62 KKEY 020208
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1008 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR TO MODERATE SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED
BRIDGES.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IN ALL OTHER WATERS.
- A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WEATHER EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ENDED UP BEING VERY
BUSY. A HEAVY LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED AND MOVED NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN AFTER SUNRISE. SHOWERS REMAINED OFFSHORE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. A BACKBUILDING LINE OF SHOWERS FORMED
DIRECTLY ON TOP OF KEY WEST. UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS
ESTIMATED A RANGE OF 3.5 TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE
ISLAND WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CLOSER TO OLD TOWN. THE BURST OF
HEAVY RAINFALL DID PROMPT A FLOOD ADVISORY AND A FLOOD WARNING.
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS
IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS ABLE TO
STABILIZE AND A LULL PERIOD IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE CWA.
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS, BUT
THE ISLAND CHAIN HAS, MERCIFULLY, BEEN GIVEN TIME FOR WATER TO
RECEDE. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE OVER.
THE EVENING 00Z KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED AN A PWAT ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE RECORD PWAT VALUE FOR THE DAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS FROM GOES EAST INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHILE
MOVING SLOWLY WEST, IS STILL DIRECTING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL
ROBUST ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN FRESH BREEZES ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT ALLOWED THE SUSTAINED ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE KEYS REMAIN IN PLACE.
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT, EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
THE KEYS. CONVECTIVE MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP NEAR
THE ISLAND CHAIN BEFORE SUNRISE AS EARLY AS 5 TO 6 AM. IN LIGHT OF
THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY, WE WILL BE KEEPING THE
SHOWERS LIKELY WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE COASTAL FLOODING. EVEN THOUGH SHOWERS OVER THE KEYS ENDED
BEFORE SUNSET, WATERS HAVE TAKEN A LONG TIME TO RECEDE. LIGHT
SHOWERS MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW
ELEVATION STREETS AND LOTS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE PAST THE PEAK OF
THE TIDE CYCLE, WE ARE OPTING TO KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS AND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THE UPPER KEYS. WATCH THE RADAR OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW, WE HAVE AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. IN THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES, ASIDE FROM
FLORIDA BAY, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
FROM SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BREEZES ARE ON TRACK TO SLACKEN TO MODERATE TOMORROW.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE BREEZES ON SATURDAY AND SUBSIDING TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
FEET OR LESS. IN ADDITION, A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE KEYS MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW, RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH EYW AND MTH WILL BE
PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY ROUNDS OF IFR CIGS AND VISS RELATED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. SHRA ARE ON TRACK TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE ISLAND
CHAIN BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN SHRA WILL
REFORM IS LOW. PROB30 WORDING IS IN PLACE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO START TO DECREASE LATE TOMORROW, AND SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD WANE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 90 81 90 / 60 50 40 40
MARATHON 80 88 81 89 / 60 50 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ076.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ033-034-
052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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