895
FXUS62 KKEY 040201
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1001 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER HIGH TIDES. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED
BRIDGES.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE ON TRACK TO DECREASE TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN FROM GENTLE TO MODERATE TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS BEFORE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THE FIRST SATURDAY OF OCTOBER PROVED TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OBSERVED A
FEW DAYS AGO. SHOWERS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WERE SHALLOW AND
DISORGANIZED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE OUTER GULF
WATERS. GOES EAST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT ABLE TO
HIGHLIGHT MANY FEATURES DIRECTLY OVER THE KEYS DUE TO A STILL-
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE 00Z KKEY
SOUNDING SUPPORTED THIS OBSERVATION WHEN IT SAMPLED AN
ENVIRONMENTAL PWAT NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE VALUE FOR THE DAY.
WHAT EXACTLY IS HAPPENING TO CREATE THIS PATTERN? IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE, THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE MIDPOINT BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. ONE IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE
THE OTHER IS SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. EARLIER TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
THE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAD MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON
KEY WEST. THAT CAN BE SEEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
LAYERS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SOMEONE'S DAY TO DAY EXPERIENCE? ANY
INDIVIDUAL WHO SPENT TIME OUTSIDE THIS SATURDAY WOULD HAVE NOTICED
THE HUMIDITY WAS VERY HIGH. DEW POINTS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
WERE SAMPLED IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. SUSTAINED GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO KEEP THE
ENVIRONMENT FROM FEELING STAGNANT. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS ON TRACK TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE CIRRUS DEBRIS SHIELD IS
GRADUALLY CLEARING. EVEN THOUGH SHOWERS WERE NOT ACTIVE IN THE
EARLY EVENING, KBYX SCANNED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARIES
MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT, THE
30 PERCENT POPS HOLD. EXPECT TO SEE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS WAXING
AND WANING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS WINDS START TO DECREASE.
WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STRUGGLED TO GENERATE LIGHTNING OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS, DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. CHECK THE
RADAR WHEN YOU CAN!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE OR OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. SHOWERS WILL WAX
AND WANE, BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARIES MOVING
AWAY FROM CUBA OR THE BAHAMAS. GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS COULD EXCEED 30
KNOTS.
FROM SYNOPSIS: ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, A
GRADUAL SLACKENING TREND WILL OCCUR DURING THE REMAINDER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, RELATIVELY DRIER
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN LATE ON SUNDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
OCCUR AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA BEFORE MID-WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
STILL REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT DAILY INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE ON TRACK TO SLOWLY SLACKEN WITH
GUSTS BECOMING INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE TAF BY
SUNRISE. BRIEF PERIODS OF SHRA ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT AT HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 90 80 89 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON 81 88 80 88 / 30 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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