498
FXUS62 KKEY 040855
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
455 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER HIGH TIDES. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED
BRIDGES.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN FROM GENTLE TO MODERATE TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS BEFORE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
HAPPY SUNDAY! A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AREA
WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED ON KBYX
RADAR. ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S MAKING FOR ANOTHER ONCE AGAIN
MUGGY MORNING. MARINE LOCATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE REPORTING EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
DEPICTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM
CURRENT CONDITIONS. MODERATE BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN
BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
LOOSENS ITS GRIP. DRIER AIR SEEN ON MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONFIRMS WHY WE HAVE BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MID WEEK, A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING IT TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
KEYS. THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED MUCH
JUST AT THEIR NEAR NORMAL OF 30%. WHILE SHOWERS CANNOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT ANY DAY, NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS LIKE WAS
EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO ANYTIME SOON AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN. ELSEWHERE, NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT. FROM SYNOPSIS, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION,
RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SETTLING IN, THOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD
STILL OCCUR AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA BEFORE MID-WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
STILL REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT DAILY INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION LEAVES MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT NEAR 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND X AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.X.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page