717
FXUS62 KKEY 041516
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1116 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER HIGH TIDES. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED
BRIDGES.
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
- BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN FROM GENTLE TO MODERATE TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
ATLANTIC RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINANT OUR WEATHER PATTERN TODAY,
PROMOTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. 2" PWATS WERE MEASURED ON OUR 12Z KKEY RAOB, BUT DEEP
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GREATLY SUPPRESSING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR WATERS TODAY, BUT THERE'S A LACK OF VERTICAL
CLOUD GROWTH NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL MAINTAIN POPS
AROUND 20% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN, THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES IN SPOTS ALONG THE KEYS. NO
CHANGES ARE PROPOSED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
HAPPY SUNDAY! A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AREA
WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED ON KBYX
RADAR. ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S MAKING FOR ANOTHER ONCE AGAIN
MUGGY MORNING. MARINE LOCATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE REPORTING EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
DEPICTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM
CURRENT CONDITIONS. MODERATE BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN
BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
LOOSENS ITS GRIP. DRIER AIR SEEN ON MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONFIRMS WHY WE HAVE BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MID WEEK, A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING IT TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
KEYS. THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED MUCH
JUST AT THEIR NEAR NORMAL OF 30%. WHILE SHOWERS CANNOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT ANY DAY, NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS LIKE WAS
EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO ANYTIME SOON AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN. ELSEWHERE, NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT. FROM SYNOPSIS, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF
BERMUDA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY THAT WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION,
RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED IN, THOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD
STILL OCCUR AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO STALL ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINS EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA PROMOTING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE HINDERED BY THE DOMINANT SURFACE RIDGE, AND IF A
SHOWER OCCURS AT A TERMINAL IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF. AS SUCH,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM/AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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