317
FXUS62 KKEY 041809
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
209 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO HIGHER HIGH TIDES. SOME STORM
DRAINS WILL OVERFLOW. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER
FIXED BRIDGES.
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
- BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN FROM GENTLE TO MODERATE TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD PER CIMSS
STEERING LAYER PRODUCTS. THIS CONTINUES TO DOMINANT OUR WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY, PROMOTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 2" PWATS WERE MEASURED ON OUR 12Z
KKEY RAOB, BUT DEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GREATLY SUPPRESSING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR WATERS, BUT THERE'S A LACK OF VERTICAL
CLOUD GROWTH NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL MAINTAIN POPS
AROUND 20% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN, THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 102 DEGREES IN SPOTS ALONG THE KEYS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DESPITE A FEW NOTABLE ALTERATIONS TO OUR SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL BE THE TRAVERSAL OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING EAST ACROSS CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS TOMORROW. THIS
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY. TO OUR EAST,
INVERTED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THIS TIME. THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SIT NEATLY
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT, WHICH WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED AND SUPPRESSED BY MIDWEEK, WHILE
OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF DRY AIR PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH, BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT LEAST. THE FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AXIS
OF ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AND LIFT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO OUR GULF
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS VARY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS, BUT WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
GULFSIDE WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, WHERE THERE WILL BE
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING. LATE IN THE WEEK, WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE YUCATAN, BUT THERE
ARE NO CONCERNS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN. ELSEWHERE, NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT. FROM SYNOPSIS, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF
BERMUDA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY THAT WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION,
RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED IN, THOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD
STILL OCCUR AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO STALL ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINS EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA PROMOTING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS, BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE HINDERED BY THE DOMINANT SURFACE RIDGE, AND IF A SHOWER
OCCURS AT A TERMINAL IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF. AS SUCH, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 89 80 89 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON 80 89 80 88 / 20 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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