216
FXUS62 KKEY 051517
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1117 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGHER HIGH TIDES. SOME STORM
DRAINS WILL OVERFLOW. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER
FIXED BRIDGES.
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL CHANCES FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
AN UNEVENTFUL MORNING IS UNFOLDING ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS! HIGH
PRESSURE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC HAS MAINTAINED GENERALLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE BREEZE IS JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR MOVING, AND NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ANY ISSUES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SCATTERED FIELD OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT AN ABSENCE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS MAKING IT THROUGH THE SKY. MOST OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE JUST FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS, BUT OUR KBYX RADAR HAS
DETECTED VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WE CAN
ALSO SEE A FEW ROGUE BOUNDARIES OVER OUR WATERS, BUT IT DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF TRIGGERING ANY MEANINGFUL
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING WASN'T TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. WHILE WE DO HAVE SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH JUST
UNDER 2 INCHES OF PWAT CALCULATED, AND NEARLY 1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE, THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL SOURCES OF LIFT AVAILABLE TO GET ANY
SHOWERS GOING. THERE ARE ALSO MULTIPLE DRIER LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE VERTICAL PROFILE, SO ANY SHOWERS THAT COULD DEVELOP WON'T
REALLY HAVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR GROWTH. THE WIND PROFILE ALSO
SHOWED AN OVERALL BACKING PATTERN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY ACTIVITY.
CIMSS VORTICITY ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA/THE GREATER ANTILLES, BUT THIS
SHOULDN'T CAUSE ANY LOCAL IMPACTS TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY.
THE INHERITED FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP.
NO CHANGES ARE PROPOSED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS, BUT MARINERS SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR REDUCED
CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGES DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. FROM SYNOPSIS, ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. IN ADDITION,
RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED IN, THOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD
STILL OCCUR AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO STALL ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A SHIFT TO LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH A MIX OF
CLEAR SKIES AND FEW CLOUDS NEAR FL025. OPTING TO KEEP THE TAF
PACKAGE DRY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THE 18Z HOUR. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS MAY BECOME
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES, BUT CROSSWIND CONCERNS ARE LOW DUE TO THE LOW
MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON 89 80 88 80 / 20 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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