019
FXUS62 KKEY 060226
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT DUE TO HIGHER HIGH TIDES. SOME STORM DRAINS
WILL OVERFLOW. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED
BRIDGES.
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL CHANCES FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
THIS EVENING HAS BEEN QUIET WITH HARDLY ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.
IN ADDITION, BREEZES HAVE SLACKENED FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING
AND ARE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SOME
OCCASIONAL GENTLE BREEZES WILL REMAIN IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, EXPECTING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
GENTLE BREEZES TO PERSIST THROUGH AS THE KEYS REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A FRACTURED RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND STRETCHES BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN, ALLOWING BREEZES TO SUBSEQUENTLY
FRESHEN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
LOW LEVEL RIDGING HAS REMAINED THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS, REFLECTED IN THE GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NOTED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F, BUT THESE LIGHT BREEZES HAVE
KEPT THE AIR FROM FEELING TOO STUFFY OR STAGNANT. EVEN THOUGH OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER HERE AT HOME IS GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE, THERE ARE
A FEW KEY PIECES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REGARDING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. A LENGTHY
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., NOTED BY THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA. CIMSS VORTICITY ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A SLOPPY AREA OF
CYCLONIC VORTICITY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE GREAT ANTILLES AREA,
AND IT IS CURRENTLY AIDING IN A MIX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRST, WE NEED TO GET THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EVEN THOUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE DOES SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW SHOWERS, WE STILL LACK
ANY MEANINGFUL LIFT TO TRIGGER THIS ACTIVITY. IF ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA CAN PASS
ACROSS OUR WATERS, WE MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIALING BACK TO THE LOWER 80S FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S.
OVER THE COURSE AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS DOWN THE PENINSULA, AND IS PROGGED TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS WOULD ERODE THE
RIDGING THAT HAS REMAINED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR
FOR SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES. THIS SET UP WOULD ALSO PLACE US IN
A TIGHTER MOISTURE GRADIENT, WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO BETTER
RAINFALL CHANCES, BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
COULD RESULT IN A CUBAN SHADOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WOULD KEEP
THE KEYS ON THE DRIER SIDE, AND CONFINE THE WETTER ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTHERN WATERS. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES ARE
HAVING DIFFICULTY HONING IN ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP, AND
THIS COULD MAKE OR BREAK THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO HAVE
SOME AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS WILL BRING MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO THE
KEYS AT SOME POINT OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT THE
QUESTION IS WHEN IS THE ONSET OF RAIN? IT DEPENDS WHICH ENSEMBLE
MEMBER YOU ASK. THE TAKEAWAY IS THAT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL SHIFT IN A WAY WHERE THE
BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WILL OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK.
WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY PROGRESSES DOWN THE SUNSHINE STATE BEFORE WE CAN NARROW
DOWN RAINFALL TIMING, AMOUNTS, AND ANY POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW/DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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