586
FXUS62 KKEY 061454
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1054 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER HIGH TIDES. SOME STORM DRAINS
WILL OVERFLOW. BOATERS CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED
BRIDGES.
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TONIGHT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL CHANCES FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS COURTESY OF THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDELY SPREAD FIELD OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER ALOFT, RESIDUAL CIRRUS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANVILS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BIG BEND AREA
ARE TRAVERSING THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS MAKING IT THROUGH THESE CLOUDS. ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL, NOT A TERRIBLE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES. LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
WILL PREVENT THAT STUFFY, STAGNANT FEELING THAT SOMETIMES COMES
WITH SUMMER-ESQUE WEATHER.
WE CAN'T IGNORE THE VERY ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN
DETECTED BY OUR KBYX RADAR OVER THE MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN VERY SHORT LIVED, AND HAVEN'T PRODUCED REFLECTIVITY
VALUES THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANYTHING NEAR MODERATE, LET ALONE HEAVY,
RAINFALL. MRMS RADAR-DERIVED ESTIMATES SHOWS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE WATERS WHERE THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING. OUR CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS RELAYING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A 20% VALUE, BUT IN
REALITY THAT SLIGHT CHANCE IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO 10%. HOWEVER,
SINCE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY, WE WILL
OPT TO HOLD OFF ON A FORECAST UPDATE ENTIRELY AND JUST USE THIS
DISCUSSION TO CONVEY THE VERY LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR THE
ISLAND COMMUNITIES HERE. FOR THE SHORT TERM, WE WILL NOT PROPOSE
ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
ON A LARGER SCALE, OUR FORECAST AREA IS SEEMINGLY WEDGED BETWEEN
TWO FEATURES. THE FIRST IS AN AREA OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN/EASTERN
CUBA/PUERTO RICO. WHILE THE CYCLONIC MOTION IS JUST BARELY
NOTICEABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS, CIMSS VORTICITY ANALYSIS
HIGHLIGHTS THE SLIGHTLY SLOPPY STACK IN THE MENTIONED AREA. BASED
ON CLOUD TOP AND LIGHTNING DATA, THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE ISN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, AND ONLY A HANDFUL OF THE SHOWERS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS IT MAY INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF ACTIVITY WITHIN OUR BOUNDARIES AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD OUR AREA. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE EXPANSIVE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS FRONT HAS SHOWN VERY
LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT IT WILL
EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE A TIGHTER MOISTURE GRADIENT AND LEAD TO
BETTER RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHERE THIS GRADIENT IS
ORIENTED WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO UP,
SO THIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. OCCASIONAL, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH TODAY. A COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO STALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN GULF DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
SHIFT TO LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST, BUT THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF QUESTION AS TO WHERE THESE BETTER CHANCES WILL COME TO
FRUITION.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS GENERALLY CALM WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE. MAINLY FEW
CLOUDS NEAR FL020 WILL PASS BY, BUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER OR
TWO NEARBY MAY LEAD TO OBSERVATIONS OF SCT TO BKN DECKS. RAIN
CHANCES AT EITHER TERMINAL ARE LOW, NEARLY 10 PERCENT, AND
CROSSWIND CONCERNS ARE LOW DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR
5 KNOTS OCCASIONALLY TURNING SOUTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 79 88 78 / 20 20 30 40
MARATHON 87 80 87 79 / 20 20 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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