699
FXUS62 KKEY 061845
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LARGER SCALE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
SHIFTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW LONG THIS STRETCH OF
WET WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WE CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S, AND
DEW POINTS ARE SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. USUALLY THE UPPER
70S IS WHERE THINGS START TO FEEL A LITTLE STICKY OR HEAVY, BUT WE
HAVE HAD LIGHT BREEZES THAT HAVE KEPT THE AIR MOVING. LOOKING VERY
CLOSE TO HOME, WE JUST SO HAPPEN TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. WE ARE STILL LACKING A SOURCE OF
MEANINGFUL LIFT, AND THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
SEEN ON OUR KBYX RADAR HAVE DIMINISHED QUICKLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT,
TELLING US THAT THE ENVIRONMENT ISN'T NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORT ONGOING ACTIVITY. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO TONIGHT CANNOT
REASONABLY BE RULED OUT, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT
CHANCE (NEARLY 10%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
BY TOMORROW, RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE AS THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CRAWL INTO THE PENINSULA.
WHILE A BETTER MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP, THE INITIAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY INHIBIT INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY VIA CUBAN
SHADOW. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW ALONG
THE KEYS, IT WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT DURING THE MORNING
AND A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT LATER TOMORROW NIGHT. SINCE THE
GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP SOMEONE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA, THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE COULD SEE AS
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY CAN GET.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO DIMINISH BY SOMETIME FRIDAY, BUT THE DEEPENING COLD
FRONT IS GOING TO INTERACT A WEAK AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THIS FEATURE IS NOTED
ON CIMSS VORTICITY ANALYSIS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. WHILE
THERE HASN'T BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THIS ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY COULD
ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING ELEVATED WINDS, BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND CLOUDIER SKIES. WHERE GUIDANCE
IS FALLING A LITTLE SHORT IS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMEFRAME WHERE
THE BEST CHANCES OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST MEASURABLE RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN,
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE OTHER MEMBERS
SUGGEST A LULL THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT SEEMS THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION WE GET BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT, THE
ARBITRARY WAVE FROM CUBA, AND INVEST 92L IN THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS. WE DO WANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT INVEST 92L DOES NOT
CURRENTLY POSE A THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS, IT MAY JUST SERVE AS
ANOTHER SOURCE FOR MOISTURE REINFORCEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. RELATIVELY MILD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES.
AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SLOWLY
PUSHES SOUTHWARD, RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. A SHORT BREAK MAY TAKE PLACE SOMETIME FRIDAY
MORNING OR AFTERNOON, BUT THE WEEKEND WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL PUSH
OF MOISTURE FROM AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CURRENTLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREA OF CUBA. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDELY SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING
HAZARDS, THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY FEW TO SCT SKIES NEAR FL025.
WEATHER AT BOTH TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY DUE TO ONLY
ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO BETTER RAIN
CHANCES NEAR THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OPTING TO KEEP THE
18Z PACKAGE DRY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 79 88 78 / 20 20 30 40
MARATHON 87 80 87 79 / 20 20 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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