328
FXUS62 KKEY 070212
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1012 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LARGER SCALE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
SHIFTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW LONG THIS STRETCH OF
WET WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPED OFF THE LOWER KEYS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE, HOWEVER, QUICKLY
DISSIPATED ONCE THE SUN SET. AT THE SAME TIME, WE DID HAVE DRIER
AIR PIVOTING UP FROM OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS DRIER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WAS READILY SEEN IN TONIGHT'S UPPER AIR
BALLOON LAUNCH. THIS HAS NEARLY HALTED ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT
HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THAT BEING
SAID, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RELATIVELY MORE MOIST AIR WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT, CLOSER TO DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. WE
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS PERCOLATE AROUND SUNRISE AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. LASTLY, WINDS COLLAPSED
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 MPH (4 KNOTS) OR
LESS. THIS COMES AS NO SURPRISE AS THE KEYS REMAIN UNDER AN AXIS
OF DILATION.
ELSEWHERE, IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
BEGAN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
AS OF 5 PM EDT. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO INITIALLY MOVE EAST,
THEN EAST-NORTHEAST, BEFORE TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TURN TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY DIRECT THREATS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY GENTLE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGES
WILL BE WINDS CLOCKING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOMING MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST TURNS DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, WE COULD
SEE BREEZES SLIGHTLY FRESHEN JUST PRIOR TO DAWN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, A PLUME OF RELATIVELY BETTER
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS BEGUN ADVISORIES ON WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE,
LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST, THEN EAST-NORTHEAST, BEFORE MAKING A TURN TO THE
NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM POSES NO DIRECT
IMPACTS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AROUND
SUNRISE. AS IT STANDS, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTIONS
IN THE GOING TAF CYCLE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WE CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S, AND
DEW POINTS ARE SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. USUALLY THE UPPER
70S IS WHERE THINGS START TO FEEL A LITTLE STICKY OR HEAVY, BUT WE
HAVE HAD LIGHT BREEZES THAT HAVE KEPT THE AIR MOVING. LOOKING VERY
CLOSE TO HOME, WE JUST SO HAPPEN TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. WE ARE STILL LACKING A SOURCE OF
MEANINGFUL LIFT, AND THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
SEEN ON OUR KBYX RADAR HAVE DIMINISHED QUICKLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT,
TELLING US THAT THE ENVIRONMENT ISN'T NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORT ONGOING ACTIVITY. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO TONIGHT CANNOT
REASONABLY BE RULED OUT, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT
CHANCE (NEARLY 10%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
BY TOMORROW, RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE AS THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CRAWL INTO THE PENINSULA.
WHILE A BETTER MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP, THE INITIAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY INHIBIT INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY VIA CUBAN
SHADOW. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW ALONG
THE KEYS, IT WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT DURING THE MORNING
AND A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT LATER TOMORROW NIGHT. SINCE THE
GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP SOMEONE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA, THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE COULD SEE AS
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY CAN GET.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO DIMINISH BY SOMETIME FRIDAY, BUT THE DEEPENING COLD
FRONT IS GOING TO INTERACT A WEAK AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THIS FEATURE IS NOTED
ON CIMSS VORTICITY ANALYSIS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. WHILE
THERE HASN'T BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THIS ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY COULD
ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING ELEVATED WINDS, BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND CLOUDIER SKIES. WHERE GUIDANCE
IS FALLING A LITTLE SHORT IS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMEFRAME WHERE
THE BEST CHANCES OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST MEASURABLE RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN,
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE OTHER MEMBERS
SUGGEST A LULL THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT SEEMS THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION WE GET BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT, THE
ARBITRARY WAVE FROM CUBA, AND INVEST 92L IN THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS. WE DO WANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT INVEST 92L DOES NOT
CURRENTLY POSE A THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS, IT MAY JUST SERVE AS
ANOTHER SOURCE FOR MOISTURE REINFORCEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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