734
FXUS62 KKEY 070855
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
455 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS REMAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM POSES NO
THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.
- AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FRESHENING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GULF AND INTO FLORIDA. THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS, TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS NINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF,
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THE KEYS REMAIN
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY AS THE WESTERN
EDGE JUST NUDGES INTO THE KEYS. MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING MAINLY SOUTH BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AS A RESULT. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOCATED ACROSS THE SE GULF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE DRY TORTUGAS. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S. IT
IS QUITE THE WARM NIGHT OUT THERE FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
FORECAST
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DRIVEN BY 3 KEY
FEATURES. THE FIRST ONE BEING TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF
COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KEYS. IN
ADDITION, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS. THIRD, HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC EXTENDS WESTWARD JUST ENOUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING KEEPING A FAINT HOLD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THE HIGH WILL BASICALLY FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. THE
FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS BEFORE THE HIGH
BUILDS BACK WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH, THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE, WE WILL SEE BREEZES FRESHEN ACROSS THE KEYS
AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TROPICAL
STORM ISAIAS, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALSO, DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PUMPS IN SOME VERY
JUICY TROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAYS OF
80 DEGREE DEW POINTS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, TROPICAL
STORM ISAIAS REMAINS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. A COLD FRONT ALSO REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD
INFRINGING ON THE SURFACE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. IN DOING SO, THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ACT IN TANDEM WITH ONE ANOTHER AND CREATE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN
FRESHENING MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION, MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE LEADING TO HIGHER
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF CAUSING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE DAY THAT MAY AFFECT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY, VCSH WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
TAF. THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR POTENTIAL PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. THE BEST
CHANCE TIME APPEARS TO BE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1962, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.74" WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871. ALSO, ON THIS DAY IN 1995, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF
1.60" WAS RECORDED IN MARATHON. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE
BACK TO JUNE 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 79 88 80 / 40 60 30 20
MARATHON 88 79 89 80 / 40 60 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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