772
FXUS62 KKEY 071529
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1129 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS
MORNING, BUT DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.
- AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN, WILL LEAD TO A PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT, AND PARTICULARLY LOW
LYING AREAS WILL SEE SOME SALTWATER PONDING AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE STILL SITTING UNDER CALM SKIES THIS MORNING
AS MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC EXCITEMENT IS OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS HAS GAINED A LOT OF ATTENTION OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS, BUT WE WANT TO RELAY THAT IT DOES
NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS SLOWLY
NUDGED DOWN THE PENINSULA. WHILE WE AREN'T SEEING THE EFFECTS OF
THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION AT THIS TIME, THE SOUTHWARD MOTION WILL
GRADUALLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE AND MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE EXPANSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHWARD THE FRONT DROPS, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES TONIGHT
(~60%), BUT THIS WILL BE LOWERED TO REFLECT CHANCES CLOSER TO 40%.
DRIER AIR SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE ADVECTED IN,
AND BY TOMORROW MORNING WE WILL SEE THESE RAIN CHANCES COME DOWN A
LITTLE BIT.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE REACHING CRITICAL
VALUES. SALTWATER PONDING WILL CONTINUE TO WAX AND WANE BASED ON
THE TIDE ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PARTICULARLY PRONE TO
FLOODING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGES
AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AS A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A COLD FRONT DRAGGING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL INTERACT WITH THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS OVER THE GULF WATERS. WHILE
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS DOES NOT POSE A DIRECT THREAT TO THE FLORIDA
KEYS LOCAL WATERS, PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
KEYS. HOWEVER, VIRTUALLY ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERNS IS
CURRENTLY UNFOLDING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE KEYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER IN THE
GENERAL AREA, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN MVFR
CIGS MAY BE LIKELY. THEREFORE, SOME MVFR OBSERVATIONS AT SOME
POINT, BUT THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD RESOLVE QUICKLY AT
BOTH AIRFIELDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AND
SHOULD RESOLVE THE ALREADY LOW CROSSWIND CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 79 88 80 / 40 60 30 20
MARATHON 88 79 89 80 / 40 60 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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