387
FXUS62 KKEY 071842
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
242 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT, AND PARTICULARLY LOW
LYING AREAS WILL SEE SOME SALTWATER PONDING AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
- AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN, WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, BUT
DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE EFFECTS OF THE STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA ARE SHOWING
UP ON OUR KBYX RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED POCKETS OF SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN WAXING AND WANING OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS IN A FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED FASHION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE 18Z KKEY
SOUNDING SHOWED AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH JUST OVER 200 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND A
BACKING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. SATELLITE
DERIVED LAYER PWAT SHOWS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT CUTTING ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA, SO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
THRIVE IN THE MOIST SIDE OF THIS GRADIENT, MAINLY WEST AND NORTH
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ESSENTIALLY, OUR FORECAST AREA IS SITTING ON
THE PERIPHERY OF ALL OF THE ACTIVITY. THIS MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED
FORECAST AS SOME OF OUR MARINE ZONES MAY SEE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WHILE OUR ISLAND COMMUNITIES DON'T. ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AS ALL OF THE LARGER SCALE LIFT
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
SOMETIME THROUGHOUT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING, DRIER AIR WILL
HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ADVECT IN THROUGHOUT THE MID LAYERS, AND
WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL CHANCES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.
CIMSS VORTICITY ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A PERTUBATION
CURRENTLY IN THE AREA OF PUERTO RICO. MEAN LAYER FLOW IS
SOUTHEASTERLY, SO THIS WAVE SHOULD TRAVERSE OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT BETTER VEERING IN THE LOWER WIND PATTERN
COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN THIS TIMEFRAME. ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
OVER THE WEEKEND, AND RIDGING WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD BACK IN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RECEDES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGES
AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AS A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WATERS TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER, VIRTUALLY ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. AS THE
COLD FRONT IS NUDGED NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK, AN
APPROACHING PERTUBATION CURRENTLY NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL LEAD TO A
MORE ROBUST ROUND OF SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND ELEVATED WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER NEAR THE KEYS MAY LEAD TO OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ISN'T EXPECTED TO APPROACH EITHER
TERMINAL, BUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER MAY BRUSH BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, BUT CROSSWIND CONCERNS
ARE LOW DUE TO WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 88 80 88 / 60 30 20 30
MARATHON 79 89 80 90 / 60 30 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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