989
FXUS62 KKEY 080236
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1036 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT, AND PARTICULARLY LOW
LYING AREAS WILL SEE SOME SALTWATER PONDING AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
- AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN, WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, BUT
DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
IT HAS BEEN A MIXED BAG OF WEATHER THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS RESIDED ALONG THE SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT IS
SITUATED TO OUR NORTHWEST. IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO, MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION FROM CUBA IS ENTERING OUR WATERS FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
AND OVER THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, THE 40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE LOOK TO BE IN
GOOD WORKING ORDER AT THIS TIME. KEY WEST MAY HEDGE A LITTLE
HIGHER ON THE POPS GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE PLUME.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THEN SHOULD SURGE BRIEFLY TOWARDS DAWN
THROUGH MID-MORNING, BEFORE FALLING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES PREVAIL THIS HOUR BUT
EXPECTING BREEZES TO FRESHEN LATE OVERNIGHT, CLOSER TO DAWN ON
THURSDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF GENTLE TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BREEZES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING WILL QUICKLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SURGE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WILL MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-
DEVELOPING CLOSE TO DAWN ON THURSDAY. THEN EXPECT DRY AIR TO
ADVECT OFF CUBA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PUSH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT. WATCHING A MOISTURE PLUME MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THAT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING AROUND 12Z/08TH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY AT
HIGH AT THE MOMENT AND WILL LEAVE MENTIONS OF VCSH FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE EFFECTS OF THE STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA ARE SHOWING
UP ON OUR KBYX RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED POCKETS OF SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN WAXING AND WANING OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS IN A FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED FASHION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE 18Z KKEY
SOUNDING SHOWED AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH JUST OVER 200 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND A
BACKING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. SATELLITE
DERIVED LAYER PWAT SHOWS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT CUTTING ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA, SO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
THRIVE IN THE MOIST SIDE OF THIS GRADIENT, MAINLY WEST AND NORTH
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ESSENTIALLY, OUR FORECAST AREA IS SITTING ON
THE PERIPHERY OF ALL OF THE ACTIVITY. THIS MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED
FORECAST AS SOME OF OUR MARINE ZONES MAY SEE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WHILE OUR ISLAND COMMUNITIES DON'T. ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AS ALL OF THE LARGER SCALE LIFT
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
SOMETIME THROUGHOUT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING, DRIER AIR WILL
HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ADVECT IN THROUGHOUT THE MID LAYERS, AND
WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL CHANCES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.
CIMSS VORTICITY ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A PERTUBATION
CURRENTLY IN THE AREA OF PUERTO RICO. MEAN LAYER FLOW IS
SOUTHEASTERLY, SO THIS WAVE SHOULD TRAVERSE OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT BETTER VEERING IN THE LOWER WIND PATTERN
COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN THIS TIMEFRAME. ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
OVER THE WEEKEND, AND RIDGING WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD BACK IN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RECEDES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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