887
FXUS62 KKEY 081439
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1039 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT, AND PARTICULARLY LOW
LYING AREAS WILL SEE SOME SALTWATER PONDING AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE.
- DRIER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL START TO GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
- HURRICANE ISAIAS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, BUT DOES
NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY 1 STORM EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAKING IT THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2026 ATLANTIC
SEASON. NO THREATS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. INSTEAD,
WE ARE SEEING WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BEING ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO NOT
OBSERVE HAZARDOUS WINDS OR RAINFALL. GOES-EAST SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOW NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES
ACROSS THE WATERS. KBYX RADAR RETURNS HIGHLIGHT FEW, IF ANY,
METEOROLOGICAL ECHOES. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WERE
OBSERVED ALONG THE REEF. ALOFT, THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE KEYS. THE MEASURED PWAT WAS
WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE VALUE FOR THE DAY, YET THE SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. TWO FEATURES ARE LIKELY THE CAUSE OF OUR DRIER
WEATHER. THE FIRST IS ACTUALLY HURRICANE ISAIAS. HURRICANES ARE
MASSIVE HEAT ENGINES, AND THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE CYCLONE CAUSES
AIR TO SPREAD AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM. THAT WARM, DRIER AIR THEN
SUBSIDES AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE. IN THIS CASE, AIR IS SINKING
OVER THE KEYS. THE SECOND FEATURE WOULD BE THE CUBAN LANDMASS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FAVOR A PATTERN REFERRED TO AS A
"CUBAN SHADOW." MOUNTAINS FORCE AIR TO RISE, THUNDERSTORMS FORM,
AND A DRIER REGION SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL, THE CURRENT PATTERN SUGGESTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL. POPS ARE LIKELY TO DROP OUT OF THE FORECAST. WINDS MAY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CHANGES.
ENJOY THE DRY CONDITIONS WHILE THEY LAST, BECAUSE WE MAY GET A
PULSE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGING
AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
FROM SYNOPSIS: HURRICANE ISAIAS, CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF WATERS, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. A COLD FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
PRESS SOUTHWARD INFRINGING ON THE SURFACE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. IN
DOING SO, THESE SYSTEMS WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO CREATE A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS, RESULTING IN FRESHENING MAINLY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION,
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE LEADING TO HIGHER RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY WITH
SOME VARIATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS, IF PRESENT,
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THUS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2020, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 83F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872. ON THIS DAY IN 2012, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 82F WAS RECORDED IN MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 82 88 82 / 30 20 30 70
MARATHON 88 82 88 82 / 20 20 40 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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