946
FXUS62 KKEY 081945
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
345 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT, AND PARTICULARLY LOW
LYING AREAS WILL SEE SOME SALTWATER PONDING AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE.
- DRIER WEATHER THIS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FROM FRIDAY TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
- HURRICANE ISAIAS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, BUT DOES
NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1544 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN SET UP FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TO THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HURRICANE
ISAIAS, UNDERSTANDABLY, DREW THE MOST ATTENTION FROM FORECASTERS
AND THE MEDIA. HOWEVER, THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT THE ONLY
FEATURE MODIFYING WEATHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO IDENTIFIES
ACTIVE SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AS PART OF A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. MEANWHILE, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SPARSE ACROSS
THE KEYS WATERS. WHAT HAPPENED, AND WHY ARE SHOWERS SO INACTIVE?
CURRENTLY, THESE THREE FEATURES ARE INDUCING SINKING MOTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS IS RUNNING INTO
AIR DIRECTED NORTH BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TUTT AND SINKING
OVER THE KEYS. MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLIES MEAN THE KEYS ARE
IN THE LEE OF THE CUBAN LANDMASS. IN A SURPRISING TURN, A CUBAN
SHADOW WAS NOT OBSERVED BY THE 18Z SOUNDING. CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE
FINALLY ABLE TO BUBBLE UP NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THESE NEARBY SHOWERS, WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS STILL UNLIKELY BECAUSE OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. TONIGHT,
EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL EVENING ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHILE HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, THE
TUTT WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST. THE REGION OF SINKING AIR WILL BE
REPLACED BY A REGION THAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS. AT THE SAME
TIME, A WEAK LOW LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE KEYS THIS
WEEKEND. STATISTICAL MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT HINTS THAT
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE KEYS
AFTER THIS PULSE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MID-WEEK, THE PATTERN GETS A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. SOME STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD MOVE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME, SO CHECK
BACK BEFORE MAKING ANY PLANS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1544 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGING
AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. WHILE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AT THIS TIME, BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN TO
MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS IN RESPONSE TO HURRICANE
ISAIAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE
OUTER GULF WATERS.
FROM SYNOPSIS: HURRICANE ISAIAS, CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF WATERS, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. ENHANCED SWELL
GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE WILL INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS AND GULFSIDE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
INFRINGING ON THE SURFACE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TO FRESHEN BEFORE THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN WATERS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THE SAME TIME AND INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1544 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. WINDS ARE ON TRACK TO SLOWLY BACK SOUTHEASTERLY AND
FRESHEN TOWARDS THE 10 KNOT TO 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. CLOUD COVER
WILL WAX AND WANE, BUT CIGS ARE UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2020, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 83F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872. ON THIS DAY IN 2012, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 82F WAS RECORDED IN MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 88 82 88 / 20 30 70 40
MARATHON 82 88 82 89 / 20 40 70 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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