799
FXUS62 KKEY 100224
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1024 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT, AND PARTICULARLY LOW
LYING AREAS WILL SEE SOME SALTWATER PONDING AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE.
- MAJOR HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF DOES NOT POSE A DIRECT THREAT
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS, BUT A RESIDUAL WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR WATERS.
- INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE PEAK IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS MOVING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
THIS EVENING. ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHWARD AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE KEYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS ISAIAS PULLS AWAY,
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BETWEEN IT AND AN ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CUBA. AS A RESULT,
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
BREEZES TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
A BROAD ZONE OF MOIST CONFLUENCE FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY. THIS ALONG WITH MODEST CAPE, A
DISSIPATING CUBAN SHADOW AND LATE DAY CUBAN SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
JUSTIFIES HOLDING LIKELY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE KEYS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN A MUGGY UPPER 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS, IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST, WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE KEYS PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX
BETWEEN THE LIFTING OUT STORM AND A BROAD RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS
CUBA. THE MARINE CAUTIONS ON OUR WESTERN WATERS HAS BEEN TAKEN
DOWN, HOWEVER, WINDS, SEAS, AND SWELLS WILL REMAIN HIGHER ON THESE
WESTERN WATERS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE
UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. WITH THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT A ROUND OR TWO OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENTLE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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