206
FXUS64 KLCH 160507
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1107 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
- COASTAL LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
A BROKEN QLCS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ACADIANA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. 00Z KLCH SOUNDING MEASURED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS AND AN INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE EARLIER
THIS EVENING, BUT MAY HAVE BEEN LIMITED BY AVAILABLE FORCING. THE
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR VERNON, RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES PARISHES
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM REMAINS ACROSS ACADIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITHIN THE QLCS, BUT A NEW WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST THIS EVENING
AS IT ALIGNS WITH THE PROGRESSING BOUNDARY.
JONES
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
ELEVATED, STRONG WINDS ARE ONGOING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35
TO 45 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI TODAY. THIS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM. THE PEAK OF THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING RIGHT NOW WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS OVERALL
TOWARDS 6 PM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, THOUGH, ON THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SEVERAL LINES OF STREAMING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THESE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TENDRILS IN A GENERAL NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. JUST WEST OF THE CWA, A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS IS STARTING TO ORGANIZE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK STORMS. THIS
MAY BE THE START OF THE STRONG SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AXIS. SO FAR, WINDS OVER THE CWA ARE VEERED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. ACCORDING TO THE LCH 18Z RAOB, WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE ALSO VEERED TO THIS ORIENTATION. UNLESS
SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST, LIKELY WON'T SINCE
THE SFC LOW IS SO FAR NORTH, THE DISCRETE NATURE OF CELLS WILL BE
LIMITED TO DEVELOPING LINE SEGMENTS. ALSO NOTED ON THE 18Z RAOB,
DCAPE OVERTOP THE AREA IS IN EXCESS OF 1100 J/KG, RAISING CONCERNS
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DCAPE TO THIS EXTENT COULD EASILY
ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTING WINDS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS.
WHILST THE LINE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A GROUP OF CELLS OVER LOWER ACADIANA WHICH WOULD BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SOMEWHAT DISCRETE (AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD) CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND
TORNADOES.
THE BIGGER RISK OF COURSE COMES WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS.
BOWING SEGMENTS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS WITH SPINUP
TORNADOES AS PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THE LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH SWIFTLY AND SHOULD BE EXITING OFF TO
THE EAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THEREAFTER WITH MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DECREASING WINDS AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN FROST DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY MORNING.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE
OF A PASSING STRONG COLD FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE RETURNING
TO THE REGION, FUNNY ENOUGH, EXACTLY ONE MONTH AFTER JANUARY'S
RECORD COLD EVENT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS TIME IS THAT MOISTURE SHOULD BE EXITING
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR'S ARRIVAL. IT IS STILL TOO FAR
OUT TO SAY IF A FEW BACK-END SNOW FLURRIES CAN BE SQUEEZED OUT OF
CLOUDS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
PROCLAIM THIS: ANOTHER SNOW EVENT ON WEDNESDAY IS EXTRAORDINARILY
UNLIKELY.
TEMPS WILL DROP RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND 50S SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE WITH THE SHUTOFF OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
ACADIANA REGION AND ARE IMPACTING LFT AND ARA. BEHIND THE FRONT
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FASTER THAN EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BPT
AND LCH. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WE SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THE
FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT,
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 40 55 32 57 / 90 0 0 0
LCH 44 58 36 60 / 70 0 0 0
LFT 47 58 36 61 / 90 0 0 0
BPT 44 60 38 62 / 50 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...14
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