595
FXUS64 KLCH 161650
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT AND COASTAL LOW LATE TUE / EARLY WED TO BRING RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER SOUTHWARD COLD AND DRY AIR.
THE INHERITED GRID PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES WERE NEEDED.
11/CALHOUN
SHORT TERM
CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER (~20
DEGREES) THAN WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY MORNING. THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AS COLDER AIR FILLS IN. ELEVATED SUSTAINED
AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
BY TONIGHT, THEY WILL TURN OUT OF THE EAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THE HIGH LOSES INFLUENCE AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER TX / MX/
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW AS
IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE CWA. THIS WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING IN A
ROBUST PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING, HENCE
THE MARGINAL RISK ERO FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE, HENCE THE MARGINAL RISK SWO. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH / LOW, AND WILL BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
THE LONG TERM KICKS OFF BEHIND THE MID WEEK FRONT WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATE IN THE WORK WEEK A TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH SOME MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO
THE CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE FRIDAY AS A RESULT. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER DEVELOP AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE GULF. FOR NOW, IT SEEMS THAT
IT WILL STAY SOUTH ENOUGH TO LIMIT POPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
BITTER COLD TEMPS TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM BEFORE A
WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WARMING TREND
WILL NOT RETURN TEMPS BACK TO CLIMO NORMS, HOWEVER THEY WILL NOT
BE BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
ELEVATED SUSTAINED AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. BY TONIGHT, THEY WILL TURN OUT OF THE
EAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SKIES TO CLEAR AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STEADILY
DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, BUT MORE NOTABLY MONDAY AS
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN LATE
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
OVER THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 54 31 56 39 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 58 36 60 47 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 58 36 61 46 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 60 38 62 51 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
475.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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