316
FXUS64 KLCH 170542
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT AND COASTAL LOW LATE TUE / EARLY WED TO BRING RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
- NO CONCERNS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EARLY-WEEK
COASTAL LOW SYSTEM.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
IT'S A BRISK DAY OUTDOORS WITH COLD AIR RIDING IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ULTIMATELY LETS UP AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TO THE EAST-
CENTRAL US. CLEAR SKIES, FALLING WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS WILL ALL
HELP TO RADIATE OUT EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE WITH THOSE IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA LIKELY FALLING
TO 30 TO 32F BY MONDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW CALM WINDS CAN
BECOME, AREAS OF FROST ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA - LESS
LIKELY AT THE COASTLINES. MONDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A SWIFT TURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY CAUSING A
MASS RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION LATE MORNING TUESDAY WITH A MORE-
CONGLOMERATED ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS IN THE EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE, THIS TIME, WILL BE CONTAINED ALMOST TO THE COASTLINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
BEFORE THE LOW CROSSES, VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED.
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE, AND BY PROXY, CAPE/INSTABILITY, THERE
WILL BE VERY HIGH SHEAR. THESE PARAMETERS WILL IN THEORY BRING
ABOUT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER, DEPENDING
ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW ITSELF AND ITS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS/LOUISIANA, ANY OF THESE THREATS COULD BE MORE LIMITED OR
EXACERBATED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND COLD FRONT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS SET TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD AIR ARRIVAL SO THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS ALEXANDRIA. LATEST THINKING KEEPS
WINTRY PRECIP CONTAINED TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH.
THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ONGOING DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS HAVE TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE; COMBINED WITH ELEVATED WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME COULD RUN 10 TO 15F FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND 15 TO
20F ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODERATION IN LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN CENLA, UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW TO MID 20S IN CENLA AND COASTAL AREAS, RESPECTIVELY. WHILE
LOWS WON'T BE AS LOW AS THE MORNING PRIOR, SEVERAL HOURS AT THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES CAN ABSOLUTELY BE IMPACTFUL.
DUE TO THE WARMING PERIOD THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN THE PREVIOUS
WEEKS, EXPECT RENEWED COLD-TEMPERATURE HAZARDS TO BE ISSUED FOR AM
PERIODS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES CAN BE DEADLY
AND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR. REMEMBER THE 4 P'S: PEOPLE, PETS,
PIPES, AND PLANTS.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SAVE FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE TURNING EASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITS THE AREA.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY WILL
DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
US. REST OF THE DAY, BUT MORE NOTABLY MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY. STRONG ONSHORE, SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTLINE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND STORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 54 31 56 39 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 58 35 59 46 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 58 36 61 46 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 60 38 61 50 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ472-475.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...66
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