567
FXUS64 KLCH 171121
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
521 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT AND COASTAL LOW LATE TUE/EARLY WED WILL BRING A
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
- NO CONCERNS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EARLY-WEEK
COASTAL LOW SYSTEM.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF, PROVIDING A LIGHT NE WIND AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX/CENLA TO THE LOWER
40S NEAR THE COAST, AND THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL A BIT FURTHER AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE.
SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WELL, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 AS TEMPS APPROACH OR
FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING.
TODAY, A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, AMID LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. MOISTURE THEN BEGINS TO CREEP BACK
IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT COOLING, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S TUES MORNING.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL OVERHEAD THROUGH TUES MORNING, AHEAD
OF A POTENT COASTAL LOW AND COLD FRONT COMBO THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS SE TX THROUGH TUES MORNING, AS
THE COASTAL LOW WORKS ITS WAY UP THE COAST FROM SOUTH TX.
CONVECTION THEN BECOMES A BIT MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON, AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS LOUISIANA. FINALLY BY TUES EVENING INTO TUES NIGHT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING NEARLY AREA-
WIDE AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NWRN GULF AND A COLD
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA NEARLY SIMULTANEOUSLY. WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERHEAD FROM GENERALLY TUES
AFTERNOON ONWARD (PWATS APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE) EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN
ISSUE. AS A RESULT, WPC HAS OUTLINED THE MAJORITY OF OUR LA
PARISHES IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ON TUES/TUES NIGHT. IN ADDITION, SPC HAS OUTLINED ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY OVERALL LOOKS RATHER MODEST HOWEVER,
A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING "A FEW STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS" WITH THE LARGEST
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/TORNADOES DOES IS EXIST BUT LOOKS TO MORE CONFINED TO NEAR
THE COAST WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE BETTER DUE TO THE PASSING
COASTAL LOW.
CONVECTION, AS WELL AS THE SEVERE/FLOODING THREATS WILL COME TO AN
END WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06Z AND 12Z WED MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH WED MORNING, WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 30S BY WED AFTERNOON WHILE AFTERNOON
HIGHS "WARM" INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IN ADDITION, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTH
WINDS THROUGHOUT WED, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED.
WED NIGHT, TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE, WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CONTINUING FOR A BIT LONGER.
17
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
1044MB SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS WE ENTER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, RESULTING IN A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS ON BOTH THURS AND FRI WILL ONLY REACH
INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. THURS NIGHT/FRI MORNING LOWS AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW
20S TO LOW 30S, WHILE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING LOWS MODERATE A BIT
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S THANKS TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ALOFT.
IN ADDITION, MODEST RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRI PM AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT SAT THANKS TO MOISTURE RETURN AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN
THE OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. APART FROM RAIN, TEMPS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AMID ONGOING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
17
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE ENE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE ESE THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS, WHILE CIGS/VIS MAINTAIN VFR. TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW, CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO FILL FIRST AT BPT/LCH AND THEN
SPREADING FURTHER N AND E THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD RELAXES. WINDS TURN TO
THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST. WINDS REMAIN E TO SE INTO TOMORROW, AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT
AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTLINE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND STORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 56 38 59 35 / 0 0 40 100
LCH 59 45 65 42 / 0 0 60 100
LFT 61 44 66 46 / 0 0 40 100
BPT 61 49 68 44 / 0 0 70 100
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ472-475.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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