529
FXUS64 KLCH 180554
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT AND COASTAL LOW TUES / TUES NIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER
- HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER MARINE ZONES
DURING THE MID-WEEK
- HAZARDOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WED
AND THURS NIGHTS
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE WILL BEGIN TO WAIN INTO TUESDAY WHILE A
LARGE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO DEEPEN SOUTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. CONCURRENTLY, PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN LOCALLY ACROSS SETX
AND SWLA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE FRONT LIFTS ONSHORE BRIEFLY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WITH
SCATTERED THUNDER ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF DAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS CARRY SUPPORT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TUESDAY. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE ALONG THE LOWEST 1-3KM.
THUS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS AT PLAY WITH THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, WATER HAZARDS
ARE MORE LIKELY THAN SEVERE, WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL OF 1-3" ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
ATCHAFALAYA COAST. PWAT'S ALSO TREND IN THE 75TH - 90TH PERCENTILE
DURING THIS RANGE. ONE THEORY, BASIS FORECAST SOUNDING ANALYSIS, IS
ANOMALOUSLY AVERAGED GULF WATERS REMAIN 1.6°C ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. ESE ADVECTION MAY ENTRAIN SOME OF THIS WARMER AIR AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MBL THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
A MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE CELL WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIP CLEARS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS. CAA AND NORTHERLIES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
WITH A DECREASE INTO THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE MODERATION BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRENGTH THE WINDS/GUST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MARINE HEADLINE CONCERNING SAFETY OF SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING.
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HAS A CHILLY THURSDAY MORNING IN STORE
WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
FALLING INTO THE 20'S WHILE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE TEENS.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL OCCUR INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, BY THIS TIME, THE AFOREMENTIONED MASSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE CELL BEGINS TO FILL WHILE MIGRATING DOWN INTO THE SECOUNS.
THEREFORE, WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT DESPITE ACTUAL LOW
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REGIME CONTINUES TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS USHERING
SOME ESE WEAK RETURN FLOW. PATTERN REMAINS A BIT UNSETTLED DURING
THIS TIME AS MODELS NAVIGATE THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH EAST, HOWEVER,
POPS DO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
AND ARE NOW SPREADING INLAND ACROSS BPT AND MAY OVERSPREAD LCH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS CLOUD LAYER WILL BE INTERMITTENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIKELY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING.
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS FROM MID MORNING
AND PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON LIKELY FALLING TO IFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN E TO SE INTO TOMORROW, AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS A
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND STORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 55 36 61 34 / 0 0 40 100
LCH 58 44 66 41 / 0 0 60 100
LFT 60 43 67 43 / 0 0 40 100
BPT 60 48 66 42 / 0 0 70 100
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...66
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