147
FXUS64 KLCH 181755
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT AND COASTAL LOW WILL BRING ABOUT A MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
- HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER MARINE ZONES
DURING THE MID-WEEK
- HAZARDOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE BOTH WED AND THURS NIGHTS
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A QUIET START TO YOUR TUESDAY IS ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
THIS MORNING HOWEVER, A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL ARRIVE LATER
TODAY BRING A MARGINAL RISK OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING SHOW INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS,
AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. BOTH WATER VAPOR
AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM
THE W/SW THIS MORNING, INDICATING WHAT IS TO COME TODAY. OVER
ROUGHLY THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW (CURRENTLY
SITUATED FROM NE NEW MEXICO TO OKLAHOMA) WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
TX WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS ON ITS HEALS. AT
THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER SURFACE LOW AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTH TX WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N/NE. EVENTUALLY THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL
BECOME ONE OVER SE TX/THE NW GULF LATER THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL THEN EJECT EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT, WITH THE TRAILING ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERING DOWN INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME TIME.
AS ALL OF THIS UNFOLDS TODAY, SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS RISING ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED RAINFALL RATES WHICH IN
ADDITION TO POTENTIAL TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2" RANGE (HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR
THE COAST). THEREFORE, THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN OUTLINED
IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.
IN ADDITION, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY/TONIGHT (EXCLUDING CENTRAL LA). WHILE INSTABILITY
WILL BE RATHER LACKING, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS, PARTICULARLY DAMAGING HAIL, WITH A LESSER THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL EXISTING ALONG THE COAST.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES AND PUSHES THE WARM/MOIST
AIR OFF TO THE EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL TO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, WITH VERY
MINIMAL WARMING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S, AMID PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. SIGNIFICANT 1044MB SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT, ALLOWING DRY AIR TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO PLUMMET INTO THE
20S AREA-WIDE TOMORROW NIGHT, AMID MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR COOLING WILL BE WINDS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH A RINSE A REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST IS EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING WINDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO RELAX SOME AS THE PLAINS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD
SOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS TO "WARM" INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THURS
AFTERNOON, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN FALLING INTO THE 20S, BOTH
AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR BOTH WED AND THUR NIGHTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF FORECAST PACKAGES.
17
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE CENTRAL CONUS SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
ALLOWING FOR A SLOW AND STEADY WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE. FRI/FRI
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BRING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S ON TAP.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST LATE FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING BACK SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE FURTHER THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERS OVER THE NW GULF WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX AT THE SAME TIME. THESE
FEATURES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH PRECIP EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF
WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUN MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN COMBINE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURE WISE, A STEADY INCREASE IN DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNIGHT
LOWS IS EXPECTED SAT THROUGH TUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S ON SAT REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY TUES,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS INCREASE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S SAT
NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY TUES NIGHT.
17
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER
VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING PRIMARILY FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MEANWHILE, REGIONAL 88DS SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SWD BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. LASTLY, ELEVATED ERLY WINDS COURTESY OF A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF EVENTUALLY SHIFTING MORE NWD
AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.
25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
E TO SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS
MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTLINE. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL ZONES FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WINDS LIKELY FALL BELOW CRITERIA TONIGHT
HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TOMORROW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSISTS, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE
WATCH FOR THE OUTER ZONES BEGINNING AT 12Z TOMORROW (CONTINUING
THE SCA ELSEWHERE).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 60 32 43 21 / 30 90 0 0
LCH 62 40 49 25 / 50 90 0 0
LFT 64 41 50 26 / 30 100 0 0
BPT 63 41 51 28 / 60 90 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-
432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25
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