621
FXUS64 KLCH 182347
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
547 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT AND COASTAL LOW KEEPS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER
MARINES ZONES OVERNIGHT PROMPTING A GALE WARNING TO BE EFFECT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
- HAZARDOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE BOTH WED AND THURS NIGHTS
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A DEEPENING COASTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDER
TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LIFT ONSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH THE FRONTAL PATTERN
FOLLOWING OFFSHORE TX/LA COAST, STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL TAKE PLACE
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A GALE WARNING WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING MIDNIGHT. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40'S AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 30'S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE A SLIGHT MODERATION
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY.
WHILE STRONGER WINDS / GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO EASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
FAIRLY DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT INITIATED BY THE CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS ENHANCED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR. A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED
NORTHERLIES, CAA, AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS HAZARDOUSLY
COLD WEATHER. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR
THIS PERIOD. SIMILARLY, AS THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AND BROADEN OVER THE HEARTLAND, TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
BE WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH THE ENTIRE AREA AGAIN
FALLING WELL BELOW FREEZING. DESPITE A SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS ONCE AGAIN. THIS PRECARIOUS COLD WEATHER WITH 8+ HOURS OF
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BURST WATER PIPES. MEASURES SHOULD
BE TAKEN NOW TO PROTECT PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CLEAR AT
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE, HOWEVER, ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL
LEAVING COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID, THE
SEVERITY WILL BE MODERATED BELOW HAZARD CRITERIA, HOWEVER, THESE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL POSE ISSUES TO CERTAIN PEOPLE,
PETS, AND PLANTS THAT ARE EXPOSED WITHOUT PROTECTION FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE TROUGHING TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHICH MAY
BRING POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INLAND AND FOR NOW,
HEDGE TO KEEP MORE SUBSTANTIAL POPS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY LIFT BACK INTO THE 60'S FOR HIGHS. AS THE
PATTERN BECOMES SLACK WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING INTO THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARD THE LOWER
70'S MONDAY.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM PRECIPITATION WILL LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT
WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT INCREASING AND TURNING NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
E TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WHILE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES
ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING BEFORE THE FRONTAL PATTERN SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH DURING THE MIDNIGHT HOUR,
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FROM HIGH
ISLAND, TX TO CAMERON, LA. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE
ZONES BETWEEN CAMERON, LA AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 3AM BEFORE UPGRADING TO GALE
WARNING. TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSIST WITH FURTHER HEADLINES
LIKELY TO APPENDED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE
LAKES AND BAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 31 42 21 39 / 90 0 0 0
LCH 39 48 26 44 / 90 0 0 0
LFT 40 48 26 43 / 100 0 0 0
BPT 40 49 28 46 / 90 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-470.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ452-455-472-
475.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ452-455-472-
475.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...66
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