267
FXUS64 KLCH 191600
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-10
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE INSERTION OF
ISOLATED FLURRIES AS MULTIPLE REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
MIXED WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM VARIOUS PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO WARM TO
SUSTAIN THE WINTRY PRECIP, VERY WEAK LIFT FROM A PASSING
PERTURBATION ALOFT CEASES AND POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR ENCROACHES.
MEANWHILE, TODAY'S TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY
TO REFLECT ONGOING CONDITIONS. AND FINALLY, A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED BRISK NRLY WINDS NEAR/MEETING CRITERIA WERE
ONGOING AND SIMILAR WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED.
25
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
TX/LA COASTLINE, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ACADIANA TOWARDS
CORPUS CHRISTI. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND EAST OF
THIS FRONT, GENERALLY FROM I-49 EASTWARD. THIS LINGERING ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE, A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF THIS COLDER
AIR IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO REACH OUR NORTHERN MOST
PARISHES, WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S AT AEX VS MID 50S AT LFT.
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, CURRENT TEMPS WILL RESEMBLE
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WHICH ARE ONLY FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S AT THE COAST, AND EVEN THIS MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. IN ADDITION TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION, GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT TODAY, YIELDING APPARENT, OR "FEELS LIKE", TEMPS IN THE
30S AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT TODAY. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, WITH PWATS FALLING
BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE A DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS
AND TWENTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LARGELY CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND APPARENT
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT ANYWHERE FROM 8 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR SUNRISE.
THEREFORE, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO THE
EXPECTED DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILL VALUES.
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A STRONG 1044MB SURFACE HIGH TAKES HOLD
OF THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. DAYTIME HIGHS "WARM" INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S TOMORROW AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT, LOWS AGAIN FALL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE TOMORROW NIGHT,
WITH ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY BEING REQUIRED IN A
LATER FORECAST PACKAGE. FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO
A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TX COAST, WITH CLOUD COVER
BUILDING BACK IN AROUND SUNSET. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO NEAR 40, WITH ONLY THE VERY NORTHERN
MOST PARTS OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING.
17
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MEANDER OFF THE TX COAST ON SATURDAY KEEPING A MAINLY OVERCAST
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE OVERHEAD. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY LOOKS SORT OF
GLOOMY AND COOL WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RAIN
CHANCES THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH
THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY, YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME SWRLY OVERHEAD BY LATE MON.
THIS WILL PROMPT A STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND IN TURN A
QUICK WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUES AND WED,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
17
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
CIGS WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING,
BECOMING MAINLY MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THEN
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NORTH WINDS NEAR 12-20 KTS
AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
TODAY, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD WILL YIELD GUSTY
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE LAKES/BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS,
WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL GULF ZONES THROUGH 3PM.
THEREAFTER, THE WESTERN-MOST ZONES WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA WITH
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING ELSEWHERE THROUGH 6PM. FROM 6PM
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY ALL ZONES (LAKES/BAYS INCLUDED) WILL
BE UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
CONTINUE. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY BUT DON'T SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE UNTIL FRIDAY PM.
THEREFORE, FURTHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 40 21 39 20 / 10 0 0 0
LCH 46 25 44 25 / 10 0 0 0
LFT 47 25 42 25 / 10 0 0 0
BPT 49 28 45 27 / 10 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-
074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR GMZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ472-475.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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