607
FXUS64 KLCH 200041
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER ON LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS.
UPDATE
UPDATES TO REFRESH TEXT PRODUCTS AS GALE WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY
HAS EXPIRED. ALSO INCLUDED RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR OUR 5 PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES, AS THIS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD SNAP LIKELY TO EITHER TIE OR BREAK THESE
RECORDS, SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NRN PLAINS RIDGING SWD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY,
WITH STRONG NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES MAINTAINING A WNWRLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MAINTAINED OUR SOLID CLOUD DECK
THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE COMBINING WITH GOOD ONGOING CAA TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK (THE CNTL LA OBS SITES HAVEN'T MANAGED TO
HIT 30F SO FAR TODAY). THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT LOCAL 88DS REMAIN
ECHO-FREE WHILE REPORTS OF WINTER WEATHER HAVE GENERALLY CEASED.
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SRN ZONES REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 00Z/18L AS SFC OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS NEAR/AT
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS CLOUDY
AND VERY COLD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WITH STRONG CAA CONTINUING, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN VERY COLD
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MINS PROGGED IN THE VERY UNSEASONAL LOWER/MID
20S. COMBINED WITH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, MINIMUM WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 10S FOR ALL BUT MAYBE THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE TONIGHT. THERE WAS CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO UPGRADING THE
INHERITED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...HOWEVER AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH WFOS TO THE EAST, ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR NOW.
FOR THURSDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL FINALLY
ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS TO SCOUR AND MORE SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP. IT
WILL REMAIN ON THE VERY COLD SIDE COMPARED TO LATE FEBRUARY NORMS
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S, ESPECIALLY
WHEN TAKING THE WIND INTO ACCOUNT WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST...AND WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL
FINALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET...AND WITH IMPROVING RADIATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S/WIND
CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS LOOKS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR THEN EITHER
OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW.
THE WORK WEEK ENDS FRIDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD, WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SWRN CONUS TURNS MID-LEVEL FLOW
A LITTLE MORE SWWD, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ALOFT TO BEGIN
INCREASING, LEADING TO A RETURN TO MORE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
25
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALLOWS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL TROF/LOW OVER THE WRN GULF
WHILE MOISTURE, MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS, CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
THE ADVANCE/PASSAGE OF A 2RY SHORTWAVE WILL KICK THE SFC FEATURES
EWD AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING PRECIP TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BEFORE PUSHING EWD. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND CWA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SYSTEM/SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACH THE REGION.
25
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WIDESPREAD THICK OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS SPREAD OVER THE REGION.
THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS, HOWEVER NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THEIR RUN OF DRY AIR IN SOUTH LOUISIANA, SO THESE
CIGS SHOULD START TO BREAK UP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PERIOD UNTIL AFTER 18Z
TOMORROW WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SOUTHWARD
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE LAKES, BAYS, AND
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
ONLY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR OUR 5
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES, AS THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD SNAP
LIKELY TO EITGHER TIE OR BREAK THESE RECORDS.
SITE THURSDAY 2/20 FRIDAY 2/21
------------------------------------------------
ALEXANDRIA, LA 24 IN 1910 28 IN 1978
LAKE CHARLES, LA 27 IN 1910 28 IN 1978
LAFAYETTE, LA 25 IN 2021 29 IN 1942
NEW IBERIA, LA 26 IN 2021 29 IN 1978
BEAUMONT, TX 29 IN 2021 29 IN 1978
------------------------------------------------
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 21 39 20 43 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 25 43 25 45 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 25 43 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 28 46 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page