219
FXUS64 KLCH 200533
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER ON LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NRN PLAINS RIDGING SWD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY,
WITH STRONG NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES MAINTAINING A WNWRLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MAINTAINED OUR SOLID CLOUD DECK
THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE COMBINING WITH GOOD ONGOING CAA TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK (THE CNTL LA OBS SITES HAVEN'T MANAGED TO
HIT 30F SO FAR TODAY). THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT LOCAL 88DS REMAIN
ECHO-FREE WHILE REPORTS OF WINTER WEATHER HAVE GENERALLY CEASED.
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SRN ZONES REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 00Z/18L AS SFC OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS NEAR/AT
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS CLOUDY
AND VERY COLD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WITH STRONG CAA CONTINUING, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN VERY COLD
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MINS PROGGED IN THE VERY UNSEASONAL LOWER/MID
20S. COMBINED WITH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, MINIMUM WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 10S FOR ALL BUT MAYBE THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE TONIGHT. THERE WAS CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO UPGRADING THE
INHERITED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...HOWEVER AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH WFOS TO THE EAST, ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR NOW.
FOR THURSDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL FINALLY
ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS TO SCOUR AND MORE SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP. IT
WILL REMAIN ON THE VERY COLD SIDE COMPARED TO LATE FEBRUARY NORMS
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S, ESPECIALLY
WHEN TAKING THE WIND INTO ACCOUNT WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST...AND WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL
FINALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET...AND WITH IMPROVING RADIATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S/WIND
CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS LOOKS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR THEN EITHER
OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW.
THE WORK WEEK ENDS FRIDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD, WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SWRN CONUS TURNS MID-LEVEL FLOW
A LITTLE MORE SWWD, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ALOFT TO BEGIN
INCREASING, LEADING TO A RETURN TO MORE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
25
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALLOWS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL TROF/LOW OVER THE WRN GULF
WHILE MOISTURE, MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS, CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
THE ADVANCE/PASSAGE OF A 2RY SHORTWAVE WILL KICK THE SFC FEATURES
EWD AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING PRECIP TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BEFORE PUSHING EWD. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND CWA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SYSTEM/SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACH THE REGION.
25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
OVERCAST CEILINGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO HANG AROUND THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE AND LATEST RAOB INDICATES THE CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER THICK
AND WILL TAKE TIME TO ERODE AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TO THE
SURFACE. AS SUCH, TAFS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIME
TAKEN TO BREAK UP CIGS; FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, EXPECT SKIES TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 13Z AT AEX AND AFTER 15 TO 16Z AT BPT, LCH
AND THEN LFT AND ARA, RESPECTIVELY. AFTER THIS, ONLY VERY HIGH
WISPY CIRRUS ARE ANTICIPATED.
STRONG NORTH WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS;
LIKELY DUE TO THE NIGHTTIME NOCTURNAL JET. IT IS UNCOMMON FOR IT
TO DEVELOP LIKE THIS AFTER A FROPA, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. EXPECT
THESE ELEVATED WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW,
DECREASING AFTER 00Z, OR SUNDOWN WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
11/CALHOUN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 20 37 20 43 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 25 42 25 45 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 24 41 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 27 44 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...11
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