617
FXUS64 KLCH 200940
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL YIELD DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPS AND
WIND CHILLS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10AM TODAY, AND
AGAIN FROM 8PM TONIGHT THROUGH 9AM FRIDAY
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THROUGH NOON TODAY AND FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
6AM FRIDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THURSDAY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CANADA TO THE GULF, WHILE ZONAL
FLOW IS ONGOING ALOFT. SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SE TX TO THE MID 20S FURTHER
INLAND, WITH FURTHER COOLING EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE.
HOWEVER, LINGER CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVENT US
FROM REALIZING THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THIS COLD AIRMASS TEMP WISE.
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE HOWEVER ALREADY IN THE TEENS NEARLY
AREAWIDE, THEREFORE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
10AM. TODAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, ALLOWING REMAINING CLOUD COVER
TO EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERHEAD AND WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RELAX. ONGOING STRONG CAA WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TONIGHT, LOWS AGAIN FALL INTO THE 20S AREA-WIDE,
WHICH ALONG WITH ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS OF WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
HAS PROMPTED ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FROM 8PM
THIS EVENING THROUGH 9AM TOMORROW MORNING.
TOMORROW, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER MO/TN WHILE
ALOFT A SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ALOFT TO TURN A BIT MORE SWRLY,
RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHILE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE JUST SLIGHTLY, WARMING INTO THE 40S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE,
ONLY DIPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST PARISHES.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS. IN ADDITION, RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST SAT AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING
ALONG THE TX COAST. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS KEEP MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND TO OUR SW THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SAT, WITH NBM POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. SAT
NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP AS THE SURFACE TROF MEANDERS
NORTH A BIT AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AND TOWARDS THE ARK-LA-TEX PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
17
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SUNDAY BEGINS WITH SHOWERS ONGOING AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX/LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE GULF MOVES A BIT CLOSER TO THE LA COAST. RAIN CHANCES PEAK
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THESE TWO FEATURES DEPART
TO THE EAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUN AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR LAST DAY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR A WHILE, WITH A WARMING TREND COMMENCING
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THE WORK WEEK WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A QUICK WARMING TREND AS
WINDS TURN SW BY MON EVENING. HIGHS WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
MON AFTERNOON, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WHILE TUES AND
WED WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
17
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
OVERCAST CEILINGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO HANG AROUND THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE AND LATEST RAOB INDICATES THE CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER THICK
AND WILL TAKE TIME TO ERODE AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TO THE
SURFACE. AS SUCH, TAFS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIME
TAKEN TO BREAK UP CIGS; FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, EXPECT SKIES TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 13Z AT AEX AND AFTER 15 TO 16Z AT BPT, LCH
AND THEN LFT AND ARA, RESPECTIVELY. AFTER THIS, ONLY VERY HIGH
WISPY CIRRUS ARE ANTICIPATED.
STRONG NORTH WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS;
LIKELY DUE TO THE NIGHTTIME NOCTURNAL JET. IT IS UNCOMMON FOR IT
TO DEVELOP LIKE THIS AFTER A FROPA, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. EXPECT
THESE ELEVATED WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW,
DECREASING AFTER 00Z, OR SUNDOWN WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKES,
BAYS, AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH THE SCA CONTINUING AREAWIDE
THROUGH 18Z AND THEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW WATER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LAKES AND BAYS, WHERE A LOW WATER ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM. CONDITIONS ONLY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 37 20 43 30 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 42 25 44 35 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 41 25 48 35 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 44 27 44 37 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-
450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11
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