930
FXUS64 KLCH 210525
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1125 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL YIELD DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPS AND
WIND CHILLS AGAIN TONIGHT...AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9AM FRIDAY
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
- SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF
UPDATE
WX MAP SHOWS THE LARGE 1042 MB COLD ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF
STATES THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THIS COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS YIELDING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 18 TO 28 DEGREES. FOR THE FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT,
COLDEST READINGS AROUND 20-22 EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARISHES, 23-26 ALONG THE I-10 & U.S. 190 CORRIDORS, AND UPPER
20S/NEAR 30 ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE MINIMUM RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY, SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS. LOWEST WIND CHILL IN THE 12-18 DEGREE RANGE,
WITH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH 9 AM.
08/DML
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CNTL/NRN PLAINS RIDGING SWD TOWARDS THE WRN GULF COAST, WITH AN
ELEVATED NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WNWRLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR
ENCROACHING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WHICH IN TURN HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
FINALLY WARM INTO THE 40 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE, REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SRN ZONES REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 00Z/18L AS SFC OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS NEAR/AT
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS CLOUDY
AND VERY COLD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WITH STRONG CAA CONTINUING, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN VERY COLD
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MINS PROGGED IN THE VERY UNSEASONAL LOWER/MID
20S. COMBINED WITH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, MINIMUM WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 10S FOR ALL BUT MAYBE THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE TONIGHT. THERE WAS CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO UPGRADING THE
INHERITED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...HOWEVER AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH WFOS TO THE EAST, ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR NOW.
IN THE NEAR TERM, VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN
TONIGHT AS CAA LINGERS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO THE
LOWER/MID 20S OVERNIGHT (POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS ACROSS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS ACROSS CNTL LA). THE GOOD NEWS IS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN RELAXING TOWARDS SUNSET, STAYING UP
ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART, BUT
RELAXING SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP APPARENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS LOW
AS THEY DID THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES
STILL PROGGED TO REACH COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA, NO CHANGES ARE
BEING MADE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED ADVISORY.
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAIN DRY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE A
WNWRLY FLOW ALOFT LINGERS. MOISTURE ALOFT BEGINS TO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE DEPARTING THE FOUR
CORNERS AND TURNING MID-LEVEL WINDS A LITTLE MORE SWRLY OVER THE
WRN GULF COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP WELL INTO THE 40S
FOR THE ERN ZONES AHEAD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING MOISTURE (TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WRN
ZONES WHERE THE CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN FIRST ARE LIKELY TO RUN
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY'S VALUES). FRIDAY NIGHT MINS, UNDER
THICK CLOUD COVER, SHOULD RUN MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S PROJECTED
MINIMUMS.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALLOWS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL TROF/SFC LOW OVER THE WRN GULF
WHILE MOISTURE, MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS, CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SATURDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY HIGHS MAY FEEL DOWNRIGHT BALMY AFTER OUR END OF
THE WEEK TEMPS AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO THE UPPER 40S OR
50S. SATURDAY NIGHT MINS ARE FORECAST TO RUN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
25
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THE ADVANCE/PASSAGE OF A 2RY SHORTWAVE WILL KICK THE SFC FEATURES
EWD AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING PRECIP TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BEFORE PUSHING EWD. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY E-CNTL LA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AS THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SYSTEM/SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE
REGION.
25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN A DENSELY DRY AIRMASS. THE BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL AFTER 21Z TOMORROW WHEN
PRESSURE GRADIENT CAN RELAX.
ON THE OTHER HAND, DEVELOPING LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND
BLOWOFF FROM BOUNDARY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS IS SENDING CLOUD
COVER UP THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AT 10 TO 15 KFT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, IMPACTING BPT AND LCH AFTER 06Z
BEFORE SPREADING NORTH TO AEX, LFT AND ARA AFTER 16 TO 18Z. EXPECT
CLOUD CEILINGS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEREAFTER AS MOISTURE
WORKS ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WITH THE RETURN OF SURFACE MOISTURE, AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL
START TO RETURN DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS BUT SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
11/CALHOUN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 20 43 31 51 / 0 0 0 10
LCH 25 43 36 51 / 0 0 0 20
LFT 26 48 36 54 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 27 43 37 51 / 0 0 0 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11
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