393
FXUS64 KLCH 220551
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1151 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A SURFACE LOW WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BRING A COLD SOAKING RAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.
- CALM WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPDATE
WX MAP SHOWS THE LARGE 1038 MB COLD ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS KENTUCKY CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE GULF STATES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH IS BEGINNING TO MODERATE
SOMEWHAT. SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED MID
LEVEL OVERCAST, WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND MODERATING SURFACE
HIGH, TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THIS
EVENING AND LIKELY BECOME STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN WITHIN THE
DRY LAYER SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE MID
40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. ONGOING FORECAST
ON TRACK.
08/DML
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
TONIGHT WE WILL SEE OUR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND TO MORE
TYPICAL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID-30S AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS
TO WASH AWAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY GET BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-10, WHILE ELSEWHERE WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THE SLOW
BUT STEADY INCREASE IN OUR TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH FROM
THE ROCKIES WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF AMERICA.
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS THE WARM
SECTOR WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED
CAPE NEAR ZERO, WITH EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOWING VALUES ONLY
AROUND 60 J/KG. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, AND WE COULD SEE ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS, BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT REMAINS LOW. FARTHER FROM THE COAST, THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER WILL DECREASE WITH LIGHTER RAIN AND NO THUNDER. HOW
DEEP THE CLOUD LAYER IS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
LOW, SO WHERE THE CUTOFF FOR THUNDER WILL BE IS, (PARDON THE
PUN,) UP IN THE AIR.
RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD, BUT WITH LOW CAPE VALUES AND A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL, RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN.
INSTEAD, EXPECT A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EVENT WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, OUR WEATHER WILL BE CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RISE. ON WEDNESDAY, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONT WILL BE A DROP IN TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES,
DOWN INTO THE HIGH 60S, WHILE DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
NO CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS 00Z DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS ENVELOPED THE REGION AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH- CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE PREVAILING FROM THE NORTH, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
OVER THE AREA ON WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE OOZING DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
RESULTING IN A DROP IN CIGS, PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PERIOD ON ACCOUNT OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT RAIN WILL START TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST TERMINALS LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD, JUST BEFORE 00Z WITH A NORTH AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THEREAFTER. LOWER CIGS AND PERHAPS LOWER VIS WILL
LIKELY COME AT THIS TIME AS WELL.
11/CALHOUN
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 433 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BROKEN THIS MORNING INCLUDE THE
FOLLOWING SITES:
SITE 2/21 BROKEN
RECORD LOW RECORD YEAR
----------------------------------
ALEXANDRIA, LA 22 BREAKS 28 FROM 1901
LAKE CHARLES, LA 27 BREAKS 28 FROM 1914
LAFAYETTE, LA 26 BREAKS 29 FROM 1908
NEW IBERIA, LA 27 BREAKS 29 FROM 1978
----------------------------------
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 32 50 36 49 / 0 10 50 70
LCH 36 46 41 51 / 0 40 80 90
LFT 38 51 42 52 / 10 20 70 90
BPT 37 46 42 53 / 10 60 90 80
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...11
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