541
FXUS64 KLCH 260444
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS
- HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES A CONCERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND A MARGINAL
RISK ON SATURDAY
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
WARM TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY CLOUD COVER IS OF THE HIGH LEVEL VARIETY FROM
CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF FROM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA.
THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN IS FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY HELP TO HINDER TRUE RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT MAY LEAVE ENOUGH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION THAT PATCHY FOG IS FAVORED OVER WIDESPREAD
FOG. THE SAME WITH THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT TO CALM, WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO
CREATE SOME MIXING AND AGAIN KEEP FOG PATCHY IN NATURE.
PROBS STILL SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE FROM
LAKE CHARLES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ACADIANA. THEREFORE,
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE,
SO DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
RUA
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION WAS YIELDING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.
24
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME CALM. THIS,
COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP, AND HREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMERON
TO DERIDDER, WITH PROBS EXCEEDING 70% ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL LA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS
S OK LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N LA. OTHERWISE, BENIGN
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER
ON THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER THICKENS OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST BY LATE THURSDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW PWATS TO
INCREASE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH EARLY THURSDAY TO NEARLY 1.4
INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT (CLOSE TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER CLIMO).
MORE ROBUST LIFT WILL DEVELOP GOING INTO THE LONG TERM AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
24
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TX COAST,
WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VERY HIGH TOTALS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA,
ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST, WITH AN AXIS OF ELEVATED QPF AMOUNTS
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SE TX/SW LA. NBM 50TH PERCENTILE 72
HOUR AMOUNTS AND WPC QPF EACH PAINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, A REASONABLE WORST CASE
SCENARIO (10 PERCENT EXCEEDANCE) SUGGESTS UP TO 4 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE LATEST DAY 4 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FROM WPC DEPICTS A SLGT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY, WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
RAINY PATTERN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY, AND
THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
YESTERDAY, THERE WERE SOME HINTS THAT STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD POSE A SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
THIS COULD STILL POTENTIALLY OCCUR, GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS, THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST SPC DAY 6 OUTLOOK
HAS PULLED THE 15% PROBS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH (COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY), JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN CWA BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A SITUATION TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO PROVIDE SOME CLARITY WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/STRENGTH. AT THIS POINT, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON SUNDAY,
THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE AND CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S, WITH A
SHARP WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TX COAST,
WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VERY HIGH TOTALS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA,
ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST, WITH AN AXIS OF ELEVATED QPF AMOUNTS
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SE TX/SW LA. NBM 50TH PERCENTILE 72
HOUR AMOUNTS AND WPC QPF EACH PAINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, A REASONABLE WORST CASE
SCENARIO (10 PERCENT EXCEEDANCE) SUGGESTS UP TO 4 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE LATEST DAY 4 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FROM WPC DEPICTS A SLGT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY, WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
RAINY PATTERN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY, AND
THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
YESTERDAY, THERE WERE SOME HINTS THAT STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD POSE A SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
THIS COULD STILL POTENTIALLY OCCUR, GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS, THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST SPC DAY 6 OUTLOOK
HAS PULLED THE 15% PROBS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH (COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY), JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN CWA BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A SITUATION TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO PROVIDE SOME CLARITY WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/STRENGTH. AT THIS POINT, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON SUNDAY,
THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE AND CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S, WITH A
SHARP WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
24
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
THE ISSUE FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CURRENTLY LIGHT WINDS WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION WITH AN OCCASIONAL CEILING. A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS, MAINLY CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF FROM STORMS OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
CLOUDS MAY HELP TO KEEP OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM
HAPPENING, TO GO ALONG WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE STAYING
UP ENOUGH FOR SOME MIXING, THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN PATCHY
WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND SOME WITH OCCASIONAL LOW CLOUD
DECKS.
THEREFORE, WILL ALLOW FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA
UNTIL AROUND 26/15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KAEX.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIFT AFTER 26/15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.
MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS
AND STORMS BY LATE THURSDAY FOR THE WESTERN MOST WATERS, WITH
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 58 82 57 79 / 0 20 0 10
LCH 62 81 61 77 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 61 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 62 82 63 77 / 0 0 0 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page