446
FXUS64 KLCH 260816
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
316 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING
- HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES A CONCERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND A MARGINAL
RISK ON SATURDAY
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
MORNING WHILE A STALLED FRONT IS OVER NORTH TX AND NORTH LA.
ALOFT, RIDGING IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH RIDGING SLIDING EAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTH LA AND DRIFT INTO CEN LA
WITH THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE, BUT
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOW.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE BAJA
WILL MOVE CLOSER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING/EXITING EAST BOUND.
THE SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY UNTIL THE EXTENDED (SAT) WHICH WILL SET A WET
COUPLE DAYS. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA AS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REASONING IS FOR 2
TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 190 AND ROUGHLY 1 TO 3 INCHES
IN THE LAKES AND CEN LA FRI INTO SAT. ISOLATED AREAS WILL RECEIVE
MORE. WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE LOW, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING. ALSO ON SAT, ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND
SHOVE A COLD FRONT TO THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND PUSHES SE WITH THE BOUNDARY.
A VERY MODEST COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN
FLOW BEGINNING BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
THE ISSUE FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CURRENTLY LIGHT WINDS WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION WITH AN OCCASIONAL CEILING. A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS, MAINLY CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF FROM STORMS OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
CLOUDS MAY HELP TO KEEP OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM
HAPPENING, TO GO ALONG WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE STAYING
UP ENOUGH FOR SOME MIXING, THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN PATCHY
WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND SOME WITH OCCASIONAL LOW CLOUD
DECKS.
THEREFORE, WILL ALLOW FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA
UNTIL AROUND 26/15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KAEX.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIFT AFTER 26/15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY, HOWEVER
WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR LATE WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVER ACROSS TX, LA, AND AR LATE THU INTO
SAT. AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES AND WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 82 58 80 62 / 20 0 10 20
LCH 82 62 78 65 / 0 0 10 30
LFT 83 61 82 65 / 10 0 0 10
BPT 82 63 78 65 / 0 0 20 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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