312
FXUS64 KLCH 261948
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
248 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES A CONCERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND A MARGINAL
RISK ON SATURDAY
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
ANOTHER DAY AND HALF OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER TEXAS. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE FRIDAY TIME ALONG WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. AFTER
SATURDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES NEBULOUS AS MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND FRONTAL LOCATIONS
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MODEL SYSTEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SMALL POPS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TOMORROW, HOWEVER
WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR LATE WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVER ACROSS TX, LA, AND AR LATE THU INTO
SAT. AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES AND WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY, HOWEVER
WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR LATE WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVER ACROSS TX, LA, AND AR LATE THU INTO
SAT. AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES AND WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 59 81 62 76 / 0 10 10 70
LCH 63 78 65 75 / 0 10 10 80
LFT 62 83 66 80 / 0 10 0 60
BPT 64 78 66 78 / 0 10 30 90
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...27
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