618
FXUS64 KLCH 270442
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES A CONCERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND A MARGINAL
RISK ON SATURDAY
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE 27/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWED A RELATIVELY DRY
LOW AND MID LEVEL PROFILE WITH MOISTURE NOT INCREASING UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IN AN INCREASING ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY, WITH THE BULK OF THE DISTURBANCE NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL FRIDAY. WITH THE PROFILE LOOKING THE WAY IT DOES, AND IS
EXPECTED TO LOOK THROUGH THE NIGHT, IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR ANY
INITIAL ACTIVITY TO MOISTEN UP THE AIR MASS ENOUGH TO SEE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A THICK UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND MAYBE VIRGA LATE
TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY
REACH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS SEEN ON THE
LATEST SHORT TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, ADDED SOME SMALL
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS AS MENTIONED, TO ADD SOME
SMALL POPS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY, OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
RUA
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
ANOTHER DAY AND HALF OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER TEXAS. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE FRIDAY TIME ALONG WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. AFTER
SATURDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES NEBULOUS AS MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND FRONTAL LOCATIONS
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MODEL SYSTEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SMALL POPS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING AS FAR AS THE AVIATION FORECAST. SOUTHERN
STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW EXTENSIVE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART, LOW
LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH BEST LIFT AND CONVERGENCE STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST, THEREFORE NO RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. THE CLOUD COVER AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
STAYING UP SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THUS, VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TOMORROW, HOWEVER
WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR LATE WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVER ACROSS TX, LA, AND AR LATE THU INTO
SAT. AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES AND WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 59 81 62 76 / 0 10 10 70
LCH 63 78 65 75 / 10 10 10 80
LFT 62 82 66 80 / 0 10 0 60
BPT 64 77 66 78 / 10 20 30 90
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...07
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