741
FXUS64 KLCH 271738
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1238 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES A CONCERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND A MARGINAL
RISK ON SATURDAY
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS MORNING, WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE CWA.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD, SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO OUR SETX COUNTIES BY THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ONLY SCATTERED
POPS AT THIS TIME.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT FROM THE GULF. PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES, EXCEEDING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY, LEADING TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE WPC HAS PLACED NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY, WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 4) ON SATURDAY. QPF TOTALS ARE PROJECTED IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING UP TO 4 INCHES
OR HIGHER. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL, THERE
IS A NONZERO PROBABILITY FOR ALL CONVECTIVE MODES. HOWEVER, THE
PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
AS THE SHORT TERMS DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION, ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL ADVANCE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME, SOME PARAMETERS CURRENTLY SUGGEST LIMITED SUPPORT FOR
STORMS.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES REGARDING THE FRONTAL TIMING, WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS INDICATING A FASTER PROGRESSION, CLEARING THE AREA BY
LATE MONDAY, WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION, MAINTAINING
PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH LITTLE TO
NO RELIEF IN DEW POINTS DUE TO RAPID RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF.
BEYOND MIDWEEK, MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE US/CANADA BORDER,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, ITS PROGRESSION
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF AN UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
SOME MODELS DEPICT OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF, WHILE OTHERS PLACE
IT OVER FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL
REQUIRE FURTHER MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD WHILE
OVERCAST SKIES WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP DOWN INTO MVFR LEVELS.
OVERNIGHT, CALM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT RAIN THEN
HEAVIER SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO START
BEFORE SUNRISE AT BPT THEN LCH 12Z. AFTER 12Z I INTRODUCED PROB30
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LCH AND BPT AND LATER FOR THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO GUST
UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVER
ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. AN INCREASE
IN STORM CHANCES AND WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 62 77 63 78 / 10 80 80 80
LCH 65 77 65 77 / 20 80 80 80
LFT 65 80 66 79 / 10 70 70 80
BPT 65 78 66 79 / 50 90 80 60
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...14
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