558
FXUS64 KLCH 272035
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES A CONCERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND A MARGINAL
RISK ON SATURDAY
- WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR US DURING THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST. A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE TO DRAG AMBLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
NORTHWARD. ENSEMBLE TABLES SHOW MOISTURE AND IVT VALUES IN THE
90TH PERCENTILE. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, A LONG SKINNY CAPE
ALONG WITH MEAN WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS. THIS IS AN IDEAL SETUP
THAT WILL CREATE AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LONG DURATION HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINBANDS SET UP REMAINS A QUESTION,
BUT, BASED ON THE BACKGROUND SET UP, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, THE WPC HAS PLACED US AT A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) ON FRIDAY AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5). WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE OVERALL THREAT REMAINS LOW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH GETS EJECTED TO THE EAST, ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOOKING DEEPER INTO THE
ACTIVE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CAPE VALUES WILL BE OVER 1000
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION WITH 0-6 KM SHEER VALUES ABOVE 200. THE
GFS AND EURO HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
DISTURBANCES.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUIETER WITH PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
STEADILY RISE WITH HIGHS ALMOST REACHING THE 90S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD WHILE
OVERCAST SKIES WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP DOWN INTO MVFR LEVELS.
OVERNIGHT, CALM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT RAIN THEN
HEAVIER SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO START
BEFORE SUNRISE AT BPT THEN LCH 12Z. AFTER 12Z I INTRODUCED PROB30
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LCH AND BPT AND LATER FOR THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO GUST
UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVER
ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT
PEAKING AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. BECAUSE OF THE
WINDS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
NORMAL RIVER LEVELS AT MOST GAUGES WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS TO
FLOOD STAGES EVEN WITH THE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THAT IS EXPECTED. MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS COULD BE EXPECTED ON
THE SABINE RIVER AT DEWEYVILLE (DWYT2) WHICH IS ALREADY AT MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. FOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PLEASE HEAD TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 62 77 63 78 / 10 80 80 80
LCH 65 77 65 77 / 20 80 80 80
LFT 65 80 66 79 / 10 70 70 80
BPT 65 78 66 79 / 50 90 80 60
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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