163
FXUS64 KLCH 280500
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES A CONCERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND A MARGINAL
RISK ON SATURDAY
- WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR US DURING THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST. A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE TO DRAG AMBLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
NORTHWARD. ENSEMBLE TABLES SHOW MOISTURE AND IVT VALUES IN THE
90TH PERCENTILE. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, A LONG SKINNY CAPE
ALONG WITH MEAN WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS. THIS IS AN IDEAL SETUP
THAT WILL CREATE AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LONG DURATION HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINBANDS SET UP REMAINS A QUESTION,
BUT, BASED ON THE BACKGROUND SET UP, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, THE WPC HAS PLACED US AT A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) ON FRIDAY AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5). WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE OVERALL THREAT REMAINS LOW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH GETS EJECTED TO THE EAST, ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOOKING DEEPER INTO THE
ACTIVE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CAPE VALUES WILL BE OVER 1000
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION WITH 0-6 KM SHEER VALUES ABOVE 200. THE
GFS AND EURO HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
DISTURBANCES.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUIETER WITH PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
STEADILY RISE WITH HIGHS ALMOST REACHING THE 90S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TOWARD MVFR AS
SWATHS OF SCT DECKS NEAR 2KFT MOVE ONSHORE. THAT SAID, THE EVENING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYERS IN LOWEST
9KFT. HOWEVER, THAT LAYER WILL MOISTEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
LEADING TO LOW MVFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FURTHER UPON THE
EVENING HOURS. RA LIKELY TO BE DOMINATE WEATHER INCREASING AFTER
DAWN THROUGH TONIGHT. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARING THE MIDDAY
HOURS WHERE SOME CELLS CAN FIND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TO
ORGANIZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVER
ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. BECAUSE OF
THE WINDS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINING HOURS TONIGHT, COMBINED SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AND 7
FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SEAS WILL FALL BELOW CONSISTENTLY 5 FEET THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
NORMAL RIVER LEVELS AT MOST GAUGES WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS TO
FLOOD STAGES EVEN WITH THE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THAT IS EXPECTED. WITH REGARDS TO RIVER FLOODING, MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS COULD BE EXPECTED ON THE SABINE RIVER WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO AFFECT. FOR THE
LATEST RIVER FORECAST PLEASE HEAD TO WATER.WEATHER.GOV.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 62 77 63 78 / 10 80 80 80
LCH 65 77 65 77 / 20 80 80 80
LFT 65 80 66 79 / 10 70 70 80
BPT 65 78 66 79 / 50 90 80 60
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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