614
FXUS64 KLCH 282040
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- TORNADO WATCH #66 IN EFFECT FOR OUR TEXAS COUNTIES AND THE
BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH 7 PM
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS FROM I-10 SOUTH THROUGH 6
PM - MAY NEED EXTENDING
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT
- THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR OUR TEXAS
ZONES AND NEARLY LOUISIANA PARISHES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THE LIKELIEST THREATS
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST RIDGING WWD WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED DEEPENING AS IT
ENTERS THE SRN/CNTL PLAINS. THE COMBO OF THESE FEATURES HAS LED TO
A VERY BREEZY DAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER...IN FACT, WINDS
HAVE BEEN BORDERLINE HIGH WIND WARNING AT TIMES OVER THE LAKE
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
CROSSING THE SRN PLAINS/TX/NRN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TROF IS HELPING FIRE CONVECTION OVER
PRIMARILY OUR TX ZONES AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WITH MAX HEATING IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER THE ERN
ZONES AS WELL. OTHERWISE, SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A CLOUDY
AND WARM DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE BIG STORIES CONTINUE TO BE THE CONVECTION
OVER TX (MORE ON THAT IN A MINUTE) AND THE STRONG SERLY SFC WINDS.
THE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER CONTINUES UNTIL 23Z/18L WHEN
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BEGIN RELAXING...HOWEVER GIVEN HOW STRONG
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA, WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO THIS
EVENING.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN
COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT AS INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS, AS ALREADY NOTED BY AN EARLIER MINI
SUPERCELL WHICH CHUGGED NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN TX. AFTER THIS
CELL DEVELOPED, SPC ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #66 FOR MUCH OF THE WRN
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
00Z/19L. ACCORDINGLY, THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN RECENTLY UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY SPC, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA PERSISTS IN A MARGINAL RISK. MEANWHILE WITH SUCH
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS A
GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO JOIN THE PARTY LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE WPC DID SHAVE BACK THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO NO LONGER
INCLUDE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK IS NOW
HIGHLIGHTED, THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ALLOWED TO
CONTINUE AS IS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING
ITS DEPARTURE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF VORTS ROUNDING THE TROF PUSH THE FEATURE EWD.
HOWEVER, ALL BUT THE NWRN ZONES REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z UNTIL THE PRECIP ENDS.
THE DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF ONE AS ANOTHER TROF WILL BE
EMERGING OVER THE CNTL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAVORABLE SETUP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF THE REGION, ALONG WITH THE
BETTER JET DYNAMICS. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH BEST POPS BEING
CARRIED OVER OUR NERN ZONES. AS OF NOW, THE AREA GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE US 190 CORRIDOR REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. IN ADDITION, THE NERN ZONES ARE BEING CARRIED
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS WELL FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
25
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES (PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN ZONES) ENDING BY THE EVENING
HOURS. SFC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY SLIP PAST THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY TUESDAY. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN AREAS WHERE
TROFFING LINGERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SFC FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL LIKELY STALL TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER, THE COMBO OF THE NEARBY FRONT AND INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL POPS FOR MAINLY THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT LOCAL 88D DATA SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS SERN TX IN RESPONSE TO
AN ADVANCING TROF AXIS ACROSS ERN/SRN TX...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AS THE TROF AXIS NEARS. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY
VFR AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY TIL TONIGHT WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, ELEVATED/STRONG SERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO
LOWERING PRESSURES OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE SOMEWHAT RELAXING.
25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SCA HEADLINES WERE RE-INTRODUCED TO THE NEAR SHORE AND INLAND
LAKES/BAYS ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SERLY WINDS HAD
DEVELOPED AND WERE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 79 64 84 / 90 70 0 20
LCH 65 78 66 80 / 90 70 0 10
LFT 67 79 68 83 / 80 90 10 10
BPT 65 80 67 82 / 90 50 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-
074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-
515-516-615-616.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436-450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
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