114
FXUS64 KLCH 310341
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1041 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- DENSE SEA FOG ACROSS THE INLAND LAKES, BAYS, AND NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO I-10.
- VERY WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
LATEST WX MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS, WITH LARGE HAIL NOTED. 00Z
HRRR AND BLENDED NBM GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO EXPAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THIS, THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT. PARTICULARLY TROUBLING
IS THE MUCH INCREASED SEVERE WIND THREAT FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA,
WHERE SPC NOW HAS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
AND THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FURTHER DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR. OTHER UPDATES INCLUDE AN INLAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY
(MATCHING THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY) ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST.
08/DML
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A RATHER WARM AND HUMID DAY FOR MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING, CAP HAS HELD SO FAR WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN BREAK THE
CAP BEFORE SUNSET AS GOOD CAPE VALUES, TO GO ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
MID LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE COULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND HAZARDS.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL PHASE WITH A LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO KICK A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH ON MONDAY MORNING. VERY GOOD
MOISTURE VALUES POOLING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PWAT AT OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF SPC CLIMO.
FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST LIFT AND ENERGY, ALONG WITH
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE NORTH AND TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DECENT CAPE VALUES REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR, THAT THERE WILL BE
A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR, FROM LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A QUICK
SPIN UP TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY BOW ECHO FEATURES
THAT MAY FORM. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND FLOW BECOMING
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOME QUICK HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WILL ALSO BRING A LOW END RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ALSO, NEAR THE COAST, SOME PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG MAY MOVE INLAND,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW FAR NORTH IT CAN GET BEFORE
FEELING THE FRONTAL LIFT AND JUST BECOME A LOW CLOUD DECK, IS LOW
THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ONLY ISSUED FOR THE MARINE AREAS AT
THIS TIME.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
RUA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID WEEK, WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW BEING CUT OFF OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP ANY FRONTAL SYSTEMS
STALLED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE ISOLATED DIURNAL DAYTIME HEATING VARIETY.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND BECOMING HUMID IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS AND SOUTH WINDS COME IN
OFF THE GULF. A RATHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL MAKE FOR QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY.
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THAT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.
RUA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR EXPECTED AFTER 01Z FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR BY 04-05Z. FOR BPT
POSSIBLY LCH, EVEN LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BETWEEN
08-12Z IF THE MARINE FOG LAYER MOVES FURTHER INLAND. STILL QUESTIONABLE
AT THIS TIME. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE AREA/LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. BEST
CHANCES ARE FOR AEX BETWEEN 08-12Z, 10-14Z FOR LCH/LFT/ARA. LOWER
CHANCES FOR BPT AROUND 20% WILL KEEP JUST VCSH AT THIS TIME. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND LIFTING CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 16-18Z ACROSS THE
AREA.
08/DML
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SATELLITE AND WEB CAMS SHOW THAT THE DENSE SEA FOG HAS LIFTED FOR
NOW. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOWER
70S DEW POINTS TO SETTLE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S, AND THEREFORE, ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AND A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES BAYS FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM MONDAY MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT/DRY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS IT CAN GET BEFORE STALLING. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER CAN MOVE OUT INTO THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS TO BREAK UP ANY SEA FOG AND LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, AND LOW
PRESSURE FORMS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE PLAINS INCREASING THE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
THEREFORE, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY WITH BUILDING SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.
RUA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 64 80 58 82 / 90 30 10 10
LCH 69 83 65 80 / 70 30 0 0
LFT 71 83 65 81 / 70 70 10 10
BPT 69 85 67 81 / 40 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ073-074-152-
241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-
450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08
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