248
FXUS64 KLCH 311156
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES AND
PARISHES NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR UNTIL 8 AM.
- DENSE SEA FOG ACROSS THE INLAND LAKES, BAYS, AND NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO I-10 AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9 AM INLAND BUT MAY PERSIST OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
- VERY WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES AND
PARISHES NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION INITIALIZING WITHIN THIS
AREA AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A ROBUST MCS ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TO ACADIANA THROUGH THE MORNING AND WHILE THIS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE, THE GENERAL IDEA MAKES METEOROLOGICAL SENSE BASED ON THE
JUST COMPLETED 06Z SOUNDING WHICH DEPICTS STRONG LAPSE RATES OF
9 DEG C/KM. SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
ARE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST NORTH
OF ALEXANDRIA.
AWAY FROM STORMS, MARINE FOG OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
HAS BEEN WORKING INLAND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS IT BACK
OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE EAST CLEARING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH THE SUN
LIKELY MAKING AN APPEARANCE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS "COLD" IN NAME ONLY AS THERE WON'T BE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY TURN OUT
OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TURNING BACK OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED, WITH THE RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWER AND
MID LEVELS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO KICK OFF SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS THE CASE
WITH THIS VARIETY OF STORMS, THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
JONES
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DAILY AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LOOK
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN THE WARMEST TEMPS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THIS ONE HAVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WHICH
SHOULD DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS INTO THE LOWER
50S. THIS MIGHT BE ONE OF THE LAST REAL GASPS OF SPRING FOR THIS
AREA SO BE SURE TO SAVOR IT.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AT LFT AND ARA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 14Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE, STORMS HAVE ENDED AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL IN AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY SHIFTS
WINDS TO THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES,
WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE OVER RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE SEA FOG FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AS WELL AS COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE BECOMING QUITE BREEZY WITH BUILDING
SEAS ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 80 56 81 69 / 30 0 10 0
LCH 84 64 80 71 / 30 10 0 0
LFT 82 64 82 72 / 70 0 0 0
BPT 85 66 81 71 / 20 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66
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